Development of proposals on practical use of active ageing concept for implementation of activities of the national project «Demography»
Object of the research
The concept of active ageing.
Goal of research
To develop proposals for the practical application of the concept of active ageing to implement the activities of the national project «Demography» on the base of the study of active ageing aspects and evaluation of its potential.
To achieve the goal, the following methods were used: (a) a desk analysis and synthesis of existing expert and scientific literature in Russian and English on the research topic; (b) examination of federal and regional legislation; (c) analysis of projects and initiatives of non-profit organizations to improve the quality of life of the elderly; (d) descriptive analysis and multivariate statistical analysis of micro-data of population surveys and statistical indicators; (e) the index method; (e) modeling.
Empirical base of research
The desk research was based on reports of the World Bank, OECD, WHO, the European Commission, and publications indexed in the Scopus, WoS and RSCI databases. Examination of the legislation was carried out using normative legal acts on measures of social policy in relation to elderly, social services adopted at the federal and regional levels from the Consultant, Garant, official websites of the Federal executive authorities, and executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The study of projects and initiatives of non-profit organizations was based on the websites of these organizations or executive bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation or municipalities. We used data from the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat) published on the official website of the agency; the Rosstat microdata surveys such as population micro-census of 2015, surveys Selective supervision of quality and availability of services in education, health care and social service, assistance of employment of the population (2013, 2015, 2017), Сomprehensive monitoring of living conditions (2011, 2014, 2016), Statistical Survey of Income and Participation in Social Programs (2013-2016), Labor force survey (2018). To analyze the factors of employment in the middle age and older we used the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE).
The results of the study
1. The main result of the study was the draft of the Concept of active ageing policy in Russian Federation, which introduced the first definitions of the terms «active ageing», «active ageing policy» and «quality of life» for use in official strategic documents on social policy issues in interests of elderly. «Active ageing» means «a state of social, economic, physical and psychological well-being that provides elderly the opportunity to meet their needs and feel inclusion in various spheres of society, achieved with the active participation of citizens themselves». «The policy of active ageing» is «a holistic system of principles, tasks and measures aimed at improving the quality of life of elderly by expanding opportunities for physical, social, economic and psychological well-being throughout life». The draft of the Concept contains the basic principles of active ageing policy and activities included in the tasks of three key priorities: health in old age, secured and dignified life in old age, and activity and participation in society.
2. Despite the observed growth in employment rates for men 45-59 years old and women 45-54 years during 2000-2018, there was no noticeable increase of employment in formal sector. This process occurred despite a marked increase in the level of formal education and some improvement in health of people in pre-retirement age. In case of job loss, only 1-1.5% of pre-pensioners are looking for a new one; most of them become inactive. One of the factors holding back employment growth at an older age is the situation on local labor markets: the reduction in the number of “good” jobs in the formal sector of the economy makes them less accessible for people in pre-retirement age. Under these conditions, without changing the broader economic situation, which would lead to an increase in the supply of jobs in the formal sector, the measures developed by the Government to protect persons of pre-retirement age from dismissal or to retrain them will have a limited effect.
3. Despite the fact that the participation of citizens of pre-retirement age in continuing education remains low, an increase in the retirement age and the organization of measures for the professional training of pre-retirees have led to an increase in demand for relevant services. Nevertheless, the analysis of the measures proposed by the Government revealed a number of imperfections that reduce the potential effectiveness of the retraining program. In particular, the proposed measures so far focus on the capabilities of employment services and the Worldskills Russia union, and not on the needs of local labor markets; the procedure for obtaining a referral to such training is rather laborious and difficult for pre-pensioners, which narrows the scope of this measure. There are problems with the definition of targets: in the Senior Generation FI, the number of retrained is measured, but not their ability to save or find work in accordance with the acquired professional skills and competencies; in the Special program of professional training and additional professional education of citizens of pre-retirement age until 2024, the proposed indicator covers only employees of pre-retirement age who are sent to training in the employment service by employers, as well as workers who apply to the employment service on their own, but do not take into account persons of pre-retirement age work as a result of training.
4. A decrease in the mortality rate significantly affects the expenses of the pension system in the long term. If the observed rate of mortality decline is maintained compared to the absence of an increase in life expectancy, the amount of expenses for the payment of pensions for all categories of pensioners may increase by 19-27% by 2050. With the implementation of a more optimistic scenario for reducing mortality that is consistent with national development goals, the increase in pension expenditures will be even greater, which must be taken into account when building a pension policy. At the same time, the results indicate the importance of improving long-term pension forecasting tools to obtain more accurate estimates of the dynamics of pension expenditures, taking into account the heterogeneity of mortality risks for older age groups affected by the mortality reduction process.
5. Demand for social services and long-term care in modern Russia is not satisfied. There is limited data to predict correctly the population’s need for care on the basis of modern approaches to measure disability in Russia. Indirect estimates based on the available data from sample surveys of the population indicate that the transition to the revealing principle of providing long-term care services will increase the number of care recipients. The projected growth in the LTC over 30 years will be more than two times. The obtained estimates are closer to the lower limits of the possible range and can be increased if the forecast model allows taking into account changes in the age profile of people in need of care due to increased life expectancy and behavioral changes. The main contribution to the growth in the number of LTC care groups is made by the increase in life expectancy.
6. There have been prepared proposals on policies to promote active ageing aimed at improving the level and quality of life of people of retirement age, and on implementing a modern model of long-term care for older citizens and people with disabilities, including: taking into account the special needs of regions, local communities, local groups and relying on the resources and initiatives of local organizations for the elderly population for the development and implementation of active ageing policies at the level of constituent entities of the Russian Federation; Organization of educational events for employees of relevant departments (social protection, healthcare, education) of regional executive bodies and organizers of social services and healthcare on the content and implementation of the Concept of active ageing policy in the Russian Federation, including the features of calculation and interpretation of the Active Ageing Index which is a tool for monitoring the implementation of this Concept; Adoption of public policy measures that increase the supply of labor by older workers (renewal of the indexation of pensions for working pensioners, the possibility of distance work, a flexible schedule, the promotion of self-employment and individual entrepreneurship in older ages, etc.); Development of government policy measures encouraging employers to hire older workers (subsidies, tax incentives; «Best employers for older citizens» rating, etc.); Inclusion of standard blocks of questions measuring basic and instrumental disabilities (ADL and IADL scales) in Rosstat's regular sample observations to assess current and predicted long-term care needs; Development of a financial model for long-term care, which take into account the principles of social and commercial insurance of risks of expenses on care; Creation of a system of social insurance of expenses for long-term (permanent outside) care.
Degree of research results implementation
The research was conducted in the interests of the Russian Federation Government. According to the results of the project 7 analytical notes were prepared. The materials of this study were used in preparation for participation in meetings at the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation; in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation; in the Account chamber of the Russian Federation; in the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat); at meetings of the Council under the Government of the Russian Federation on guardianship in the social sphere, the Working Group for expert development of the concept of Active ageing in Russian Federation, the working group of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives to create a long-term care system. The draft of the Concept of Active ageing policy was presented at a meeting of the Council under the Government of the Russian Federation on guardianship in the social sphere (September 11, 2019). According to the results of the work on improving the methodology for calculating the index of active ageing, which was carried out by Rosstat together with the staff of the HSE ISP, gratitude was received from the deputy head of the Federal State Statistics Service.
Level of implementation
Results and recommendations, formulated on the base of the conducted research, can be usedto advise public authorities and improving existing or developing legislation in the field of demographic, family and social policies measures in favor of older citizens and active ageing policies in order to increase their effectiveness
The analysis of social and economic inequality and redistribution policy, evaluation of the standard and quality of life of various social groups, and the research of the factors of healthy and active ageing
Analysis of the demographic and socio-economic behavior of households at different stages of the life cycle and assessment of social and tax policies impact on the dynamics of the standard of living and its differentiation