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The analysis of long-term and mid-term trends in the development of the military technosphere, its interconnection and interaction with the civilian technosphere

2020
Department: Centre for Advanced Studies of Russian National Security

Goal of research

Definition of the sphere of formation and application of emergent technologies and related export control issues in the U.S. policy from the point of view of Russian interests; identification of both long-term and mid-term trends in the development of military and civil technosphere as applied to outer space, especially anti-satellite weapons; definition of the main characteristics of the U.S. military space policy.

Methodology

The methodological base of the study is presented by: formal and logical method, methods of classification and comparative assessment of material, identification and analysis of trends and other techniques that allow to evaluate in a systematic way long-term and mid-term trends in the development of military technosphere, its interconnection and interaction with the civilian technosphere.

Empirical base of research

The empirical base of the research is the documents concerning the issues of military technosphere development.

Results of research

In carrying out research on the topic"The analysis of long-term and mid-term trends in the development of the military technosphere, its interconnection and interaction with the civilian technosphere":

The phenomenon of emergent technologies was studied in connection with the issues of export control in the U.S. national security policy in relation to the development of military and civil technosphere.

Long-term and mid-term trends in development of military and civil technosphere as applied to activity in outer space are analyzed. In particular, the main possible directions in the development of anti-satellite weapons (kinetic and non-kinetic action) were studied, including the capabilities of satellite inspectors and repair satellites as potential means of anti-satellite warfare.

The mid-term and long-term trends in the U.S. aerospace policy have been identified, considering the events conducted by the D. Trump administration, including the establishment of the Space Force.

6 (six) analytical notes were elaborated and forwarded to the customer by the state assignment.

The following issues were examined and analyzed in the briefs:

  • Emergent technologies and export control issues in U.S. national security policy.

  • Inspection satellites and repair satellites as potential anti-satellite warfare tools.

  • Some tendencies in the development of anti-satellite weapons (as an increasingly important component of the military technosphere).

  • The involvement of the private sector in China's high-tech industrial defense complex.

  • Issues related to the establishment of the Space Force as a new type of US Army.

  • Mid-term and long-term trends in U.S. military space policy.

In coordination with the customer of the state assignment, these briefs were also forwarded to the state authorities of Russian Federation, including the Office of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and others.

The result is also this final report on the following topic: "The analysis of long-term and mid-term trends in the development of the military technosphere, its interconnection and interaction with the civilian technosphere", which includes both the analytical briefs themselves and the recipients of additional mailing notes.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results

The level of implementation of the results and the significance of the work is quite high, which is reflected, among other things, in a number of reviews by the Russian government authorities. Among them are the reviews of the First Deputy Defense Minister R.Kh. Tsalikov (out. № 234/51 of 14.04.2020), Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs S.A. Ryabkov (out. № 2808/dnkv of 29.04.2020, ref. "2517/dnkv from 14.04.2020, out. № 4158/dnkv from 03.07.2020).