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Regular version of the site

Russia’s Demographic  Prospects up to 2030 and their Economic and Social Consequences

2011
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

This scientific report contains the results of the research carried out by the staff of IDEM, HSE in 2011 and takes into account the long-term work of the staff on the issues addressed in the study.

Object of the study: the modern demographic situation in Russia against the background of long-term trends in its major components: fertility, mortality, net migration and the evolution of population size and age-sex distribution, as well as the prospects for the development of the demographic situation and its economic and social consequences until 2030.

Purpose of the study: based on an in-depth long-term retrospective study of trends in the population development of Russia and the analysis of the effectiveness of public policies on family, health, and demographic processes, to propose an independent assessment of the demographic prospects of Russia up to 2030 and to point out the most important expected economic and social implications of demographic trends, which should be taken into account during the development of programs for socio-economic development.

Empirical base of the study: analysis of the demographic situation and the effectiveness of population policy based on official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Ministry of Health and Social Development, the Federal Migration Service, statistical information from international databases of Eurostat, UN, OECD, national statistical services of foreign countries, databases developed by research centers, results of specified sample surveys, as well as our own calculations and indicators obtained using all of the aforementioned sources.

Methodology. In the analysis of empirical data and the forecasting, classic demographic analysis and forecasting methods are being used. At the same time, recent demographic approaches and measuring procedures are used that are better able than traditional indicators to identify and assess the true dynamics of the processes under conditions of rapid change. It is especially important for understanding changes in reproductive behaviour, since traditional measures of fertility do not always reflect the true dynamics and can be misleading with regard to real trends. In the analysis of mortality, including causes of death, it is common to use a decomposition method and other methods based on tables of mortality by causes of death. Much attention has been paid to the analysis of cohort indicators.

Empirical results are understood within the theoretical concepts of correlation between the demographic changes and the socio-demographic modernization of Russian society. The concepts of demographic transition, including the concepts of epidemiological transition, of the second demographic transition, and of migration transition, are used as a methodological basis for this analysis.

Results of the work

- based on the latest data, analytical characteristics of the current state of the basic demographic processes: nuptiality, fertility, family planning, mortality and life expectancy, internal and external migration, spatial distribution, changes in population and the transformation of age-sex structure of the population - against the background of long-term trends and in the context of the experience of developed countries;

- assessment of the impact of existing government policies on demographic processes and spatial redistribution of the population, showing their lack of effectiveness in terms of the goals outlined in the "Concept of Population Policy in Russia until 2025";

- scenario hypotheses of changes in the basic demographic processes and a forecast of the size and the age-sex structure of the population in 2030 with three variants (low, high, medium), demonstrating that the stabilization of Russia's population in the long term can only be attained if the most optimistic scenarios for fertility, mortality and the inflow of migrants seeking permanent residence in Russia are realized;

- description of problematic situations and major challenges for society and the economy arising from the population forecast: a significant drop in the number and proportion of working-age people, reduction in the number of young people, aging of the population and its working-age component;

- recommendations for adjusting both the objectives of population policy and its instruments to ensure an adequate response to the demographic challenges in the medium and long terms.

Implementation of the results. The results of the analytical and forecasting studies of IDEM are used by Rosstat for the development of official population projections for Russia and its regions, as well as for processing and analyzing the results of the national census. These results, especially in the study of migration, have been used to substantiate the migration policy within the framework of Strategy 2020.

The study is based on a database created and supported by IDEM. It is freely available on the Internet and is widely used for scientific and educational purposes.

Foreign partners. IDEM is a member of the European partnership of leading centres for population research - Population Europe ( http://www.population-europe.eu/Press/ExpertPortraits.aspx ). There is a direct link to the IDEM site from the site of the Partnership

IDEM cooperates with the population departments of the UN and the Economic Commission for Europe, as well as with leading European population research centers: National Institute of Population Studies in France ( http://www.ined.fr/ ), Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany ( http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/ ), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ( http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/ ), Vienna Institute of Demography ( http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/ ), etc., which allows the IDEM to carry out work on a cooperative and complementary basis within the framework of international projects, including the program "Generations and gender" (“Parents and children, men and women in family and society – RusGGS” in Russia), bringing together about 30 European and non-European countries.

Area of application. The results of the study are recommended for use:

- in the activities of the executive branches at both the federal and regional level to improve the depth and quality of monitoring of demographic processes, to improve the system of criteria and indicators used to characterize the population and analyze the effectiveness of public policy;

- in the work of the supreme bodies of state administration, ministries and departments responsible for the strategic development of family, health and migration policies;

- to improve the content of educational socio-demographic programs for bachelor and master students in HSE and other secondary and higher education establishments.

Publications:


Митрофанова Е. С. Демографическое поведение поколений россиян в сфере семьи и рождаемости // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2011. Т. 15. № 4. С. 519-542.
Абылкаликов С. И. Данные о миграции населения в источниках Росстата // В кн.: Статистические методы анализа экономики и общества. 3-я Международная научно-практическая конференция студентов и аспирантов (15-16 мая 2012 г.) / Под общ. ред.: В. С. Мхитарян, В. П. Сиротин, М. Ю. Архипова, Л. А. Родионова. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2012. С. 14-15.
Вишневский А. Г. Пенсионная реформа: на пересечении экономического и демографического // В кн.: XIV Апрельская международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества: в 4-х книгах. Книга 1 / Отв. ред.: Е. Г. Ясин. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. С. 207-216.
Shkolnikov V., Andreev E. M., McKee M., Leon D. A. Components and possible determinants of the decrease in Russian mortality in 2004-2010 // Demographic Research. 2013. Vol. 28. No. 32. P. 917-950.