Monitoring of Dynamics of Production Indicators in the Real Sector of the Economy
The object of the research. Monthly dynamics of the following indicators during 2011:
- industrial production, separated into 31 activities and production of 300 industrial commodities;
- non-industrial activities’ production (agriculture, forestry, fishing, construction, wholesale and retail sales, transportation);
- exports (disaggregated into 19 commodity groups) and imports (disaggregated into 14 commodity groups);
- annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian goods in the global market for 1998-2010 (split into 90 commodity groups).
The purposes of the research.
1. Prompt detection of:
- changes in the monthly dynamics of production indicators, exports and imports in the real sector of economy (months of the beginnings and ends of growth, recession and stagnation periods) using calendar and seasonal adjustments, and thus –
- tendencies in overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008.
2. Analyzing annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian goods in the global market and factors influencing it.
Data used in the research. Data on monthly production, exports and imports are provided by Russian Federal Statistical Agency – Rosstat (http://www.GKS.ru). Data on annual exports and imports are provided in the publications of Russian Federal Customs Service “Foreign trade customs statistics of the Russian Federation”.
Result of the research. Results of monthly monitoring are presented in the following reports:
- “Indexes of industrial production intensity”;
- “Indexes of non-industrial activities’ production intensity”;
- “Indexes of exports and imports”.
These reports are regularly refreshed and can be found on the web-site of the Institute “Center for Development” (http://www.dcenter.ru) in the section “Regular reports” and also on the web-site of HSE (http://www.hse.ru) (then section “Science”, then “Monitorings” (in Russian)).
The purpose of these reports is to provide prompt information for users interested in current tendencies in the dynamics of listed indicators and factors influencing them.
During almost all of 2011, industrial production was at the stagnation level, and only in October did a tendency towards growth recovery appear. The main factors causing the stagnation were the growth of the business tax burden due to raising the rate of social insurance payments. In addition, there was no growth in real disposable income, appreciating of the ruble real effective exchange rate that was accelerated at the beginning of the year and low level of the investment activity. The factors that led to some growth acceleration at the end of 2011 were only sporadic, and therefore couldn’t stand out as good signs of a transition to a sustainable industry production increase.
In January-October 2011, agricultural production increased significantly (due to the high harvest in contrast to the drought in 2010), the production volumes in construction, wholesale and retail trade and transportation also increased.
Due to rise of contracted export prices the export growth was very steady that led to increase of positive trade balance surplus starting from October 2010 to September 2011. However, import growth rates have slowed down since May 2011, and in July import volumes started to decrease.
The highest export growth rates during January-September 2011 were for oil products, iron ores and concentrates, coal, wheat and meslin. However, export of machinery, equipment and vehicles, refined copper and raw nickel decreased.
During the same period, there was high import growth in machinery, equipment and vehicles (including cars), ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals. At the same time import of steel pipes, poultry and citrus fruits to Russia significantly decreased.
The growth potential for Russian foreign trade competitiveness that had been obtained because of ruble devaluation after the 1998 crisis was exhausted in 2006. In 2007 the indicator of competitiveness had fallen sharply. Soft devaluation of the ruble after the 2008 crises had increased the competitiveness indicator in 2009 slighly, but in 2010 it fell again to its lowest level since 1998. In 2010 foreign trade competitiveness suffered due to unfavorable dynamics in various product groups, such as metals and their products, machinery, equipment, vehicles, foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials.
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