• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site
  • HSE University
  • Research projects
  • Analysis of Prospects for the Development of Russian Economy and Its Specific Sectors in Short and Long-Term Perspective Based on Macroeconomic Modeling

Analysis of Prospects for the Development of Russian Economy and Its Specific Sectors in Short and Long-Term Perspective Based on Macroeconomic Modeling

2011
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The subject of this research is to discern the most important macroeconomic characteristics of world and Russian economies and their main sectors (real, banking, financial, budget, and household sectors), money, international trade, and financial and capital flows.

The aim of the research is to define the development potential of Russian economy based on an analysis of macroeconomic processes in relation to themselves, subject to the influence of the world economic situation and Russian macroeconomic policy, and to make a scenario forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators based on macroeconomic modelling, a system of leading indicators, and expert surveys.

Goal achievement presupposes solving several tasks, such as regular monitoring of macroeconomic processes that happen in the Russian economy, its main sectors (real, banking, financial, budget, and household sectors), and in international trade, as well as financial and capital flows; regular monitoring of monetary and fiscal policies of Russian authorities; evaluation of macroeconomic consequences of supposed changes in state economic policy; designing a model of the budget sector  and model instruments for defining the development potential of an economy influenced by government budget policy on the basis of fiscal multiplier calculation; designing a new system of cyclical economic development indicators, research of cyclical properties of various indicators to reveal their leading properties, designing scenarios on development of Russian and world economies in the short and long run based on macroeconomic processes modelling; creating a database; and improvement of model and econometric instruments required for solving specified tasks.

The novelty of this work consists in researching the influence of institutional development level on economic growth rates, using a multifactor model and in designing a new system of leading indicators. Besides modernization of the macroeconomic model, an algorithm of influence of different kinds of government expenditures was set up, in which macroeconomic indicators were specified.

During  execution, statistical, graphic and econometric analysis of detailed data were used that are contained in the Federal State Statistic Service, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Customs Service databases and other international and national sources. Official forecasts of socio-economic development of Russia, projects of State Budget Law, projects of Main monetary policy directions of Bank of Russia, and documents of strategic planning system of the RF were used as well

Used during  analysis of the current situation and short run perspectives of the Russian economy statistical and econometric analysis of data were: macroeconomic experts surveys, and analysis based on specifically designed system of aggregate indicators that outstrip macroeconomic situation for 1-2 quarters. During the forecasting for medium- and long run, a multidimensional macroeconomic model that allows imitational modelling of various scenarios was used, to find its weak places and evaluation of potential effectiveness of various government regulation measures.

As a result, the characteristics of the macroeconomic process that happen in the Russian economy, its main sectors (real, banking, financial, budget, and household sectors), and in international trade, as well as financial and capital flows were exposed. The most important macroeconomic tendencies of the Russian economy and its main sectors within the context of the global economy  were outlined; the main features of the monetary and fiscal policy were emphasized; macroeconomic consequences of supposed changes in state economic policy were estimated; scenarios of the development of Russian and world economies in the short and long run  were worked out.

The substance of the work consists in the possibility of using the results in preparing for distribution and publication of regular analytical bulletins directed to concerned parties, with Comment to forecast socio-economic development of Russia, project  State Budget Law, project  main monetary policy directions of the Bank of Russia, and work out recommendations to the President, Government and Bank of Russia.

The field of application for the results is information and analytical support for the Government and the Bank of Russia in questions of economy and economic policy.

Foreign partners who participated in research are:

1) Jan-Egbert  Sturm, Prof., KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Director; CIRET (the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys), President; sturm@kof.ethz.ch

http://www.kof.ethz.ch/en/

https://www.ciret.org/

2) Piter Havlik, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Deputy Director; havlik@wsr.ac.at

http://www.wiiw.ac.at/

3) Gianluca Cubadda, Head of the Department of Financial Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"; gianluca.cubadda@uniroma2.it

http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/nuovo/facolta/docenti/docenti.asp?IdProfessore=337

Publications:


Yasin E., Aleksashenko S. V., Akindinova N. Scenarios and challenges of macroeconomic policy. M. : SU HSE Publishing House, 2011.