This research project covers a broad set of macroeconomic problems and relationships typical to a resource-based economy. It provides some practical guidelines for designing the optimal macroeconomic policy in Russia in the short and long run.
The goal of this project is to elaborate methods of macroeconomic analysis that are appropriate for designing fiscal and monetary policies in a resource economy in the short and long run.
In the project, we analyzed the effectiveness of fiscal, monetary and exchange-rate policies in a resource-based economy, designed a robust macroeconomic policy using different assumptions about model uncertainty, evaluated the role of inflation expectations in the Russian economy, identified thequalitative relationship between natural resource endowment, human capital and economic growth, demonstrated the differences between autocratic and democratic regimes in the area of trade policy, and used appropriate econometric estimations to build a DSGE model for a resource-based economy.
We found that, regardless of the chosen monetary regime, leadership by the central bank is not preferable for society. We argue that central bank conservatism (with inflation stabilization a high priority) in a resource economy is not a primary condition for setting up optimal macroeconomic policy. We compare different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies interaction under the double financial crisis. We also propose a new approach to designing optimal macroeconomic policies in the real world, when the true model of the economy is unknown.
For the empirical base of our research we used: http://www.gks.ru, http://www.сbr.ru, http://databank.worldbank.org, http://www.oecd.org, http://comtrade.un.org, http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm and others.
Our foreign partners are:
Eric Maskin, Nobel laureate, Ph.D., professor, Institute for Advanced Study http://www.ias.edu/people/faculty-and-emeriti/maskin
RoelBeetsma, Ph.D., professor, University of Amsterdam http://www1.fee.uva.nl/toe/beetsma.shtm
Hubert Kempf, Ph.D., professor, University Paris-1 (Pantheon-Sorbonne) http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/membre/Kempf/images/TMPmts7254bat.htm
Antoine D'Autume, Ph.D., professor, University Paris-1 (Pantheon-Sorbonne) http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/membre/dautume/dautume.htm
Jean-Pierre Drugeon, professor, University Paris-1 (Pantheon-Sorbonne) http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/drugeon-jean-pierre/
EleniIliopulos, professor, University Paris-1 (Pantheon-Sorbonne) http://eleni.iliopulos.free.fr/
Bertrand Wigniolle, professor, University Paris-1 (Pantheon-Sorbonne) http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/wigniolle-bertrand/
Daniel Treisman, Ph.D., professor, UCLA http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/treisman/