The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.
The project was implemented within the framework of the HSE fundamental research program.
The scientific report contains the results of research carried out by the staff of IDEM, HSE in 2012 and takes into account the long-term work of the staff on the issues addressed in the study.
Object of the study is the present demographic situation in Russia against the background of long-term trends in the major demographic processes : fertility, mortality, migration; evolution of Russia's population size and structure (by sex, age, ethnicity, sources of livelihood, household size and composition) based on the results of the All-Russian census 2010 in comparison with previous national census; migration processes in the post-Soviet space and interaction in migration between Russia, the CIS countries and the European Union.
Objective of the study:
- to perform a comprehensive analysis of the Census 2010 data, using these data, to correct the quantitative and qualitative evaluation of demographic trends in Russia, changes in the structure of its population in the 2000s;
- to evaluate the magnitude and consequences of international migration between Russia, CIS and EU.
Empirical base of the study: an analysis of the demographic situation based on official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), data of the CIS Statistical Committee, the former Ministry of Health and Social Development, the Federal Migration Service, statistical information from international databases of Eurostat, the United Nations databases, OECD databases, international databases developed by foreign research centers, national statistical services of foreign countries, IDEM HSE Demographic database as well as our own calculated indicators obtained using all of the above-mentioned sources and data from sample surveys representative at a national level.
Methodology. In the analysis of empirical data we used classical demographic analysis tools designed to assess the intensity/probability of demographic, migration events and their trends and patterns in different socio-demographic groups. At the same time, we also used recently developed demographic approaches, techniques and measuring procedures that are better than traditional indicators at identifying and evaluating the true dynamics of these processes under conditions of rapid change. It is especially important for understanding changes in the reproductive behaviour, since the traditional period measures of fertility do not always reflect its trends correctly and can be misleading for observers. In studying the fertility and family formation process we paid special attention to the analysis of cohort indicators to adequately assess the most significant, lasting changes. In the analysis of mortality, including mortality by cause of death, it is common to use a decomposition method and other methods based on life tables by cause of death. Empirical results are comprehended within the theoretical concepts of relationships between the demographic changes and the socio-demographic modernization of Russian society. The concepts of Demographic Transition, including the concepts of Epidemiological Transition, of the Second Demographic Transition, and of Migration Transition, are used as a methodological basis of this analysis.
Results of the work:
evaluation of the current state of demographic processes in the context of long-term trends and the experience of developed countries: marriages, partnership's formation and its dissolution, fertility, family planning, mortality and life expectancy, internal and external migration, spatial distribution of population, size and age-gender structure of the population under transformation;
analytical characteristics of Russia’s population by the data of the 2010 Census and changes in the basic structural characteristics of the population, compared with previous national and foreign population censuses in the following aspects: geographical location, ethnic and linguistic composition, structure of households by size and demographic types, sources of economic subsistence of households, family and marital status;
assessment of volumes and directions for permanent and temporary migration from Russia to countries outside the former Soviet Union;
assessment of volumes and directions for permanent and temporary migration from the CIS to OECD countries;
characteristics of the structure of migration inflows from Europe to Russia;
social and demographic characteristics of permanent migrants moved from the CIS to Russia;
assessment volume and structure of labour migration into Russia;
geographic and social parameters of the brain drain in Russia and the CIS;
characteristics of main patterns of migration remittances in the CIS and their consequences for development;
estimation of the CIS’s migration potential for Russia;
assessment of the impact of existing government policies on demographic processes and spatial redistribution of the population, showing their lack of efficiency in terms of the objectives set out in the "Concept of Demographic Policy in the Russian Federation up to 2025" (adopted in 2007 with development in the following years);
Assessment of the influence of Russian state policy regarding international migration in different historical periods and in view of the expected results of the measures taken in the framework of the "Concept of Migration Policy", adopted in 2012;
Recommendations for adjustments to both the goals of the demographic and migration policies and their tools to provide an adequate response to the demographic and migration challenges for Russia in the medium and long term perspectives.
Implementation of the results. The results of analytical and forecasting studies of IDEM are used by Rosstat for the development of official population projections for Russia and its regions, improvement of the national system of population statistics, as well as for processing and analyzing the results of the national censuses and sample surveys. These results, especially in the study of migration, have been used to substantiate migration policy within the framework of the 2020 National Strategy.
Database created and supported by IDEM is freely available on the internet and is widely used for scientific and educational purposes.
IDEM cooperates with the Population Department of the United Nations, UNDP, UNFPA, IMO, World Bank, and the Economic Commission for Europe, as well as with leading European population centers: the National Institute of Population Studies in France (http://www.ined.fr/
), the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany (http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/
), the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/
), the Vienna Institute of Demography (http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/
), etc., which allow us to carry out the study on a cooperative, complementary basis within the framework of international projects, including the program "Generations and gender" (“Parents and children, men and women in family and society / RusGGS” in Russia), bringing together about 30 European and non-European countries.
Area of application. The results of the study are recommended for use:
- in the activities of the executive branches on a federal and regional level to improve the depth and quality of monitoring demographic processes, to improve the system of criteria and indicators used to characterize the population and analyze the effectiveness of public policy;
- in the work of the supreme bodies of state administration, ministries and departments responsible for the strategic development of family, health and migration policies;
- to improve the content of educational socio-demographic programs for Bachelor's and Master's students at the HSE and other establishments of higher and also secondary education.
Васин С. А.
, Кваша Е. А.
, Харькова Т. Л.
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. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2013. Гл. 2. С. 51-92.
Мкртчян Н. В.
, Карачурина Л. Б.
Внутрироссийские миграции // В кн.: Население России 2010-2011. Восемнадцатый-девятнадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский
. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2013. Гл. 9. С. 444-473.