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The Russian economy in the context of economic stagnation in developed countries: short and medium-term forecasts

Priority areas of development: economics
2013
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Research object: substantial macroeconomic, structural and institutional parameters of the Russian economy as a whole and its major sectors (industrial, banking and financial, public and households sectors), money market, foreign trade, financial and capital in/outflows.

Research purpose: to develop short and medium-term scenario forecasts for the Russian economy in the context of economic stagnation in developed countries. The main instruments of the research are macroeconomic modeling, the system of leading indicators and surveys of experts in forecasting.

Empirical base of the research: During this research we conducted statistical, graphical and econometric analysis of detailed information contained in the databases of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Customs Service (FCS), and other international and national sources. Additionally, the official forecasts of socio-economic development of Russia, the federal budget draft of the Russian Federation, “Guidelines for the monetary policy” drafts of the Bank of Russia and the strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation were all used in the research. For the analysis of the current situation and short-term prospects of the Russian economy, we used statistical methods and econometric analysis of actual data, surveys of professional macroeconomists and analysis on the basis of a specially developed composite leading index with 1-2 quarters forecast. For the middle and long-term prediction, we implemented a multidimensional macroeconomic model that enabled the simulation of various scenarios for the development of the Russian economy, in order to identify its "bottlenecks" and evaluate the potential effectiveness of various measures of state regulation.

Research results: The study identified major trends in the world economy, including the United States, the Eurozone and China, as well as the situation in the global financial markets, assessed prospects for the world economy coming out of the crisis; the Russian economic stagnation patterns, including trends in key sectors; major areas of institutional change in the Russian economy according to the international rankings developed by the World Economic Forum and the World Bank. Conclusions are made about the limited effects of monetary and fiscal policy to accelerate the economic growth and restructure the economy. The short-term prospects for the Russian economy are made on the basis of regular surveys of experts in forecasting, as well as through cyclical indicators.  Along with the analysis of different medium- and long-term scenarios for the Russian economy, quantitative estimates for basic macroeconomic indicators in 2014-2016 were also provided.

Implementation of the research results: The practical significance of the work lies in the opportunity to usie the results in preparation of regular information and analytical bulletins addressed to the stakeholders, for comments on the forecast of socio-economic development of Russia, federal budget drafts, the “Guidelines for the monetary policy” drafts of the Bank Russia, and to develop recommendations to the President, the government and the Bank of Russia.

International partners: Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Full Professor of Applied Macroeconomics, Department of Management, Technology and Economics (D-MTEC), ETH Zurich, Switzerland; President of CIRET (Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys)