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Comparative analysis of behavioral models of Russian private and government-owned banks from 2005 till the present time

2013
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The object of the research. Russian private and government-owned banks.

The aim of the research is to examine similarities and differences in behavioral models of Russian private banks and state-owned banks during various stages of Russia’s economic development from 2005 to the present time, including the period of economic growth based on favourable foreign market conditions, the crisis of 2008, and the current stage, characterized by high volatility and uncertainty of external conditions.

The empirical base of the research was the monthly and quarterly reports of banks on the site of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (http://www.cbr.ru), quarterly reports of securities issuers and lists of affiliated persons in the “Spark” (http://www.spark-interfax.ru) and from the official websites of banks.

The results of the research. The analytical methodology part of the research introduces new approaches to the classification of credit organizations, seperating the public sector of the banking system, and marking out key parameters characterizing behavioral model of different subsystems of the Russian banking system. Creating this new original data series has allowed the correct analysis of changes in the behavioral model for the whole system as well as for its segments.

This research is a logical extension of another investigation on the topic “The analysis of the interrelations between macroeconomic, structural and institutional aspects of development of the Russian economy and the estimation of its role in medium- and long-term tendencies of its development”. Within the scope of this topic the bulletin “Banks: Statistics&Economics” was issued (No. 21 – 28 are published on the HSE official website). It contained a quantitative analysis of the current dynamics of commercial credit organizations key parameters for both state-owned and private banks. A graphical analysis allowed us to allocate asynchronous points in particular aspects of the business behavior of the bank groups named above.  Also the analysis showed the presence of financial spillovers between the aforementioned bank subsystems of the Russian banking system, depending on business activity dynamics.

The originality of the present research is that it develops the approaches used earlier, specifies the methods for attributing banks to any bank group, provides integral estimates of the dynamics of the behavioral models for two subsystems of the Russian banking system and conducts a comparative analysis. The results of the research are presented in the bulletin “Banks: Statistics&Economics” (No. 31 – 40, published on the HSE official website).

Publications:


Smirnov S. V. Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time: An experience of the 2008-09 recession // Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis. 2014. No. 1. P. 103-128.