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Recent demographic trends in Russia and their consideration in socioeconomic forecasting

Priority areas of development: economics
2013
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Object of the study: The current and prospective demographic situation in Russia, long-term trends in basic demographic processes and components of population change: fertility, mortality, migration, evolution of size and demographic structure of the population, and the possible impact of demographic processes on economic and social development.

Purpose of the study

To conduct a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s demographic trends in the 2000s in an international context, and to produce updated versions of demographic projection scenarios for their consideration in socioeconomic forecasting. The analysis takes into account the annual data series, revised after the 2010 Census, for fertility, mortality and migration, and the implemented measures of population policy.

Empirical base of the study

This study is based on:

- Official Rosstat data, including the results of the 2010 Census and previous National Censuses; the results of special processing of the initial micro data of the 2002 and 2010 Censuses, performed at the request of the HSE IDEM; detailed data from annual vital statistics reports (births, deaths, marriages, divorces), estimates of population size and its demographic composition, basic demographic and migration indicators and characteristics; statistical data provided by the Federal Ministries: Public Health, Interior Affairs, Labour and Social Development, The Federal Migration Service, the Social Insurance Fund;

- International comparative data of sample surveys carried out in Russia, in particular, data from three waves of the panel study "Parents and children, men and women in family and society"/RusGGS (2004, 2007 and 2011); data from the "Russian longitudinal monitoring survey of the economic situation and health»/RLMS; “Russian reproductive health survey”/RusRHS (2012 ), “European Social Survey”/RusESS and others;

- The information contained in international databases of statistical and demographic data: United Nations, WHO, OECD, EuroStat Demographic Database, Human Mortality Database, Human Fertility Database, as well as databases HSE IDEM and some others;

- Data from national statistical offices of the European countries and the CIS countries, including the results of national population censuses, data from national civil registration systems relating to national citizenship, foreign citizens and migrants of different categories;

- The results of national and international sample surveys on labor migrants in European and CIS countries.

Key results of the research include:

- Analytic characteristics of components of population dynamics in Russia and its regions, recent changes in the regional distribution of the Russian population including its urban and rural components, based on the adjusted time series (after 2010 Census) of demographic data for the 1990s and 2000s;

- Results of the study of the most recent trends in family formation and termination of marriage and partnerships in Russia in the context of their long-term development and the experience of developed countries, which simultaneously allowed an introduction to Russian and international academic community of new data and estimates obtained from the development and analysis in more, than in previous years, detail of vital statistics on marriages, divorces, deaths in 2011 and 2012;

- Results of updated analysis of fertility trends and their response to demographic policy measures as well as the evolution of these measures, the introduction to academic consideration of new data relating to ethnic differentiation in fertility and differences in birth rates by marital status, analytical description of the situation in family planning in Russia ;

- Results of analysis of the continuing decline in mortality in Russia, assessment of the contribution to this process of the main age groups and leading causes of death, in-depth study of mortality from external causes of death, infant and perinatal mortality;

- Introduction to the Russian and international academic community of new data relating to the intensity of internal Russian migration: both of temporary labor migration and permanent migration, as well as socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of migrants;

- Evaluation of the impact of existing government policies on demographic processes and spatial redistribution of the population, revealing their lack of effectiveness in terms of the goals which were set in "The Concept of demographic policy in the Russian Federation until 2025" and in the May presidential decrees of the Russian Federation (2012);

- Scenario hypotheses about future changes in the basic demographic processes, and projections of the population size and sex-and-age structure in Russia for the period up to 2030 in 36 variants demonstrating that the stabilization of Russia's population in the long run can only be attained if the most optimistic scenarios for fertility, mortality and the inflow of migrants seeking permanent residence in Russia are realized;

- Conclusions about the possible impact of projected demographic changes (decrease in the number and proportion of people of working age, reduced youth population, aging of total population and its able-bodied segments, demographic dependency ratios increase) on economic and social development in Russia.

Implementation of the results

In 2013, long-term research activities of the Institute of Demography, HSE in the field of demographic analysis and projections (including studies of the current year) were used when performing research for the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation "Assessing consequences of change in the demographic structure of the population of the Russian Federation for social and economic development of the country, taking into account different scenarios of future demographic trends", (the Institute won the official tender for this work). The results of IDEM research work are regularly used by Rosstat, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Labour and Social Development, Ministry of Health in the development of official population projections for Russia and its regions, the development of measures to improve the socio- demographic, family and migration policy. Methodological approaches developed in this project are widely used by Rosstat in order to improve the statistical monitoring of demographic and migration processes, and to produce research-based assessments of indicators characterizing the demographic situation and its change, in analyzing the results of the National Population Census and national socio-demographic sample surveys.

The International demographic database supported by IDEM with open access in the Internet is widely used at all levels of the state administration, for scientific and educational purposes, as well as in electronic and print media in Russia and abroad.

The results of this study were presented at the International conference organized by IDEM "Low fertility and low mortality: the observed reality and images of the future" (Moscow, October 31 - November 1, 2013), and are published in professional journals, as well as published by IDEM in the popular internet magazine "Demoscope Weekly".

Area of application

The results of the study are recommended for use:

- in the activities of executive branches on the federal and regional level to improve the depth and quality of monitoring demographic processes, to improve the system of criteria and indicators used to characterize the population and analyze the effectiveness of public policy;

- in the work of the supreme bodies of state administration, ministries and departments responsible for the strategic development of family, health and migration policies;

- to improve the content of educational socio-demographic programs for bachelor and master students in HSE and other secondary and higher education establishments.

Publications:


Вишневский А. Г., Андреев Е. М. Ближайшие демографические перспективы России // В кн.: Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. Гл. 7. С. 383-409.
Frejka T., Zakharov S. V. The Apparent Failure of Russia’s Pronatalist Family Policy // Population and Development Review. 2013. Vol. 39. No. 4. P. 635-647.
Винник М. В. Развитие здравоохранения в Томской губернии на примере городов Томска и Барнаула в конце XIX века // В кн.: Калейдоскоп урбанизации и добровольческие инициативы. Барнаул : [б.и.], 2013.
Исупова О. Г. Российские консенсуальные союзы начала XXI века (по данным международного сравнительного исследования) // Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены. 2015. № 2 (126). С. 153-165.
Сакевич В. И., Денисов Б. П., Елизаров В. В. Гендерные особенности распространения социально значимых болезней // В кн.: Регулирование рынка труда: экономическая активность женщин в странах АТЭС и в России. М. : Издательство Нестор-История, 2013. Гл. 8. С. 110-125.
Кашницкий И. С. Что в возрасте тебе моем? // Демоскоп Weekly. 2014. № 581-582
Isupova O. G., Perelli-Harris B. Chapter 8, Crisis and Control: Russia's Dramatic Fertility Decline and Efforts to Increase It, in: Fertility Rates and Population Decline: No Time for Children?. L. : Palgrave Macmillan, 2013. Ch. 8. P. 141-155.
Вишневский А. Г. Международные миграции – императив глобализованного мира // В кн.: Соціологія та суспільство: взаємодія в умовах кризи. II Конгрес Соціологічної Асоціації України. Тези доповідей.. Kharkov : , 2013. С. 121-122.
Сакевич В. И. Сколько в мире бесплодных пар? // Демоскоп Weekly. 2013. № 559 - 560
Zakharov S. V., Mitrofanova E. S. 俄罗斯青年人口特征 (Demographics of the Youth in Russia), in: 青年与社会变迁:中国与俄罗斯的比较研究 (The youth and social change: a comparative study between China and Russia) / Отв. ред.: C. Li, P. M. Kozyreva. Beijing : Social Sciences Academic Press, 2014. Ch. 2. P. 50-67.
Захаров С. В., Митрофанова Е. С. Демографические характеристики молодежи России // В кн.: Россия и Китай: молодежь XXI века / Отв. ред.: М. Горшков, Л. Чунлинь, З. Голенкова, П. М. Козырева. М. : Новый хронограф, 2014. Гл. 2. С. 55-79.
Флоринская Ю. Ф., Зайончковская Ж. А. Международная миграция // В кн.: Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. С. 343-382.
Isupova O. G., Perelli-Harris B., Mynarska M., Berrington A., Evans A., Keizer R., Klaerner A., Berghammer C., Lappeguard T., Vigholi D. Towards a new understanding of cohabitation: Insights from focus group research across Europe and Australia // Demographic Research. 2014. Vol. 31. No. 34. P. 1043-1078. doi
Андреев Е. М., Кваша Е. А., Харькова Т. Л., Рамонов А. В. Смертность и продолжительность жизни // В кн.: Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. Гл. 4. С. 239-308.
Захаров С.В., Богоявленский Д.Д., Исупова О.Г., Сакевич В.И., Комлева Р.Н., Чурилова Е.В. Рождаемость // В кн.: Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. Гл. 3. С. 99-238.
Абылкаликов С. И. Основные направления жизненных миграций в регионах Сибири // В кн.: Калейдоскоп урбанизации и добровольческие инициативы. Барнаул : [б.и.], 2013. Гл. 5. С. 38-43.
Мкртчян Н. В. Пространственные особенности внутрироссийской миграции в постсоветский период // В кн.: Современные исследования миграции населения / Под общ. ред.: Е. В. Донец, О. С. Чудиновских. М. : Экономический факультет МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова, 2015. С. 94-111.
Pridemore W. A., Chamlin M. B., Kaylen M. T., Andreev Evgeny. The Effects of the 2006 Russian Alcohol Policy on Alcohol-Related Mortality: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis // Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research. 2014. Vol. 38. No. 1. P. 257-266. doi
Захаров С. В., Исупова О. Г. Брачность и брачное состояние // В кн.: Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. Гл. 2. С. 57-98.
Мкртчян Н. В., Карачурина Л. Б. Внутрироссийские миграции // В кн.: Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: А. Г. Вишневский. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014. Гл. 5. С. 309-342.
Тындик А. О., Митрофанова Е. С. Социально-экономическое поведение индивида в зеркале концепции жизненного пути // Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены. 2014. № 3 (121). С. 146-159. doi
Абылкаликов С. И. Миграционное развитие регионов России на примере Рязанской и Енисейской губерний (1897-2010 гг.) // Гуманитарные исследования в Восточной Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке. 2013. № 6. С. 5-17.
Zakharov S. V., Mitrofanova E. S. Demographics of Youth in Russia, in: Handbook of the Sociology of Youth in BRICS Countries / Ed. by T. Dwyer, Gorshkov Mikhail K., I. Modi, C. Li, M. S. Mapadimeng. World Scientific, 2018. Ch. 7. P. 123-143. doi