Monitoring of socio-political destabilization risks

Research purpose:  system monitoring and analysis of social and political transformation dynamics of particular countries and regions, forecasting of their social and political development based on analysis and subsequent practical recommendations for overcoming or avoiding social and  political instability.

Empirical base of the research: global cross-national databases (World Development Indicators, UN Population Division, etc.), database of Demographic and Health Survey of the U.S. Agency for International Development (Demographics and Health Surveys) covering more than 100 countries, mass media monitoring, fieldwork data.

Research results:

• The development of an index of socio-political instability in relation to countries of the Arab Spring has been completed.
• From the quantitative analysis of global cross- national databases and the data of Demographics and Health Surveys, the demographic factors of socio- political instability in various countries around the world have been analyzed.
• The cultural and anthropological factors of political and demographic risks in sub-Saharan Africa have been analyzed.
• The work on expanding the sample being analyzed in order to develop a more accurate method of calculating the index of potential instability has been done through examination of Central Asian countries.
• The correlation between the development and distribution of new media and mobilization of protest activity, articulation of public opinion as well as synchronization of protest activity in the studied countries has been detected.
• The tools and features of protest activity manifestation in each of the countries affected by the wave of anti-government protests have been analyzed.
• The correlation between Internet censorship in this region and the escalation of protest activity has been determined.

Implementation of the research results:

Developments of scientific research can be used in the following structures:

1. Presidential Administration of Russia, Open Government, Business Russia (there is a positive interaction experience, primarily in the field of implementation of the developments in the field of structural and demographic analysis).

2 . The Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots Living Abroad and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo): there is a positive interaction experience in the application of the analysis of socio-political transformations and the risks for developing countries.

3 . The Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Governments providing significant international development assistance, international development assistance agencies and governments and executive authorities of various developing countries are also potential partners for which the results of Laboratory activity can be of considerable interest.

Publications: