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Theoretical and methodological approaches to analysing world economic processes after the crisis

Priority areas of development: economics
2013
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

This research is a part of the work carried out in 2011-2012 supported by the HSE Center for Basic Research. It focuses on the usage of previously approved methods of corporate expertise to analyze the key processes of the world economy in the post-crisis period, and their impact on the Russian economy. Despite the substantial amount of literature that has appeared in connection with the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, issues such as the long-term strategy for economic development in Russia, the search for new resources of national competitiveness in a low growth world economy, global transformation flows of savings, capital budget crises in developed countries, have not been covered in the scientific literature.

The subject of this research is the state of the world economy at the recovery stage. As the profound transformations are affected by a wide range of economic determinants such as energy, demography, global governance, this research faces the necessity to go beyond a strictly economic approach and deal with the larger challenges mentioned too.

The aim of this study is to determine how the Russian economy will fare in conditions of global competition in the post-crisis period up to 2030.

Methods of the research and Information basis

The main method of the research is an economic and statistical analysis of the dynamics of world economic development and cyclical processes. It is complemented by a statistical analysis of the country and of the industrial structure of the world economy. The focus is also on empirical analysis of crisis processes during 2007-2010 and the stagnation period of 201-2012. As a basis for information we used international organizations` databases (IMF, UN, OECD, World Bank and others), and data of the national statistical services.

Preliminary results of the research

In this project, the research team stands in front of a large-scale goal: to determine the conditions of global competition of the Russian economy in the post-crisis period 2030 We managed to solve all tasks set earlier in the year.

  • We identified the basic trends of accumulation, consumption and R & D in OECD countries.
  • The global financial crisis has led to a significant change of views on the liberalization of capital flows. Forming optimal system constraints at the moment is particularly relevant for developing countries due to the expected tightening of monetary policy in developed economies.
  • In the world's fuel and energy complex there is a combination of a number of trends, some are divergent, and as those trends develop a new image crystallizes for the future of energy.
  • Prospects of the Chinese economy with a horizon of 20-40 years are the subject of constant debate among specialists. In general, a slowdown is expected sooner or later.
  • The global financial crisis had an impact on developing countries, including the BRICS. The result was a slowdown in economic growth, mainly due to the slowdown in exports, weakening currencies of four out of five - not the Chinese yuan, a temporary reduction in the inflow of foreign direct investment.

Publications:


Григорьев Л. М., Курдин А. А. Энергетическая эффективность: ключевой элемент новой экономики // В кн.: Доклад о человеческом развитии в Российской Федерации 2013. Устойчивое развитие: Вызовы Рио / Под общ. ред.: С. Н. Бобылев. М. : ПРООН, 2013. С. 102-116.
Макаров И. А. Глобальное изменение климата как вызов мировой экономике и экономической науке // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2013. Т. 17. № 3. С. 480-499.
Лихачева А. Б. Проблема пресной воды как структурный фактор мировой экономики // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2013. Т. 17. № 3 . С. 497-524.
Григорьев Л. М., Курдин А. А. Экономический рост, развитие энергетики и нефтяные рынки – новые условия функционирования // В кн.: Мировая экономика в начале XXI века. Учебное пособие / Под общ. ред.: Л. М. Григорьев. М. : Директмедиа Паблишинг, 2013. С. 510-535.
Grigoryev L. M., Makarov I. A., Alla Salmina. Domestic Debates on Climate Change in Russia, in: Climate change, Sustainable Development, and Human Security: A Comparative Analysis. Plymouth : Lexington Books, 2013. Ch. 9. P. 249-280.
Grigoryev L. M., Hafner M., Tagliapietra S. The Role of the Russian federation in a globalizing gas market // European Energy Journal. 2013. No. 4. P. 53-65.
Мировая экономика в начале XXI века. Учебное пособие / Под общ. ред.: Л. М. Григорьев. М. : Директмедиа Паблишинг, 2013.
Григорьев Л. М. Сценарии развития и экономические институты // Экономическая политика. 2013. № 3. С. 33-60.
Григорьев Л. М., Морозкина А. К. Экономики разные – проблемы общие. БРИКС: время для консолидации // Россия в глобальной политике. 2013. № 2. С. 26-40.
Григорьев Л. М., Курдин А. А. Экономический рост и спрос на энергию // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2013. № 3. С. 390-406.