The subject of this research is the state of the world economy at the recovery stage. As the profound transformations are affected by a wide range of economic determinants such as energy, demography, global governance, this research faces the necessity to go beyond a strictly economic approach and deal with the larger challenges mentioned too.
The aim of this study is to determine how the Russian economy will fare in conditions of global competition in the post-crisis period up to 2030.
Methods of the research and Information basis
The main method of the research is an economic and statistical analysis of the dynamics of world economic development and cyclical processes. It is complemented by a statistical analysis of the country and of the industrial structure of the world economy. The focus is also on empirical analysis of crisis processes during 2007-2010 and the stagnation period of 201-2012. As a basis for information we used international organizations` databases (IMF, UN, OECD, World Bank and others), and data of the national statistical services.
Preliminary results of the research
In this project, the research team stands in front of a large-scale goal: to determine the conditions of global competition of the Russian economy in the post-crisis period 2030 We managed to solve all tasks set earlier in the year.
- We identified the basic trends of accumulation, consumption and R & D in OECD countries.
- The global financial crisis has led to a significant change of views on the liberalization of capital flows. Forming optimal system constraints at the moment is particularly relevant for developing countries due to the expected tightening of monetary policy in developed economies.
- In the world's fuel and energy complex there is a combination of a number of trends, some are divergent, and as those trends develop a new image crystallizes for the future of energy.
- Prospects of the Chinese economy with a horizon of 20-40 years are the subject of constant debate among specialists. In general, a slowdown is expected sooner or later.
- The global financial crisis had an impact on developing countries, including the BRICS. The result was a slowdown in economic growth, mainly due to the slowdown in exports, weakening currencies of four out of five - not the Chinese yuan, a temporary reduction in the inflow of foreign direct investment.