The aim is to offer a typology of Russian cities with populations over 100,000 on the basis of analysis of differences in the dynamics of their demographic and economic development in the post-Soviet period and to identify the main factors that determine the type of development found.
The empirical basis is the statistical data, characterizing the development of administrative centers of federal subjects and of the cities of the Russian Federation with populations over 100,000; analytical materials collected in the form of case studies describing the impact of institutional factors on the development of cities.
The results of the work
Based on the main goal of the research project the following main results were obtained.
We conducted a review of the works of both foreign and Russian authors devoted to the study of the main trends and factors affecting the development of the cities (Chapter 1). In foreign sources in relation to the cities of developed and developing countries we considered such factors as institutions, specialization, mobility of factors of production, structure of economy, growth of employment, the status of the city, the level of human capital and others. The overview of Russian sources included an examination of the main historical stages of development of the cities; main trends of modern development in the context of socio-economic reform and globalization, as well as the features of this development, lack of their own revenues, poor effectiveness of local authorities, the irrational use of urban areas, etc. The overview contains a brief description of typical urban economic, social, environmental problems, and an analysis of various ratings of Russian cities.
We used methods of cluster and regression analysis in developing methodological and methodical approaches to the construction of typologies of Russian cities and the identification of geographic, demographic and economic factors influencing their development (section 2). To implement these methods on the basis of official statistics, as well as other reliable information resources a database was created for cities with populations over 100,000 (including administrative centers of regions with a smaller population). In addition, we have worked out approaches to the study of the institutional factors of cities' development to include the possibility of reviewing cases on the basis of the following factors: special economic zones, strategic planning at city level, organisation of events and projects, conflicts in interaction between municipal and regional authorities.
We selected variables for cluster analysis using the successive approximations method (section 3). The results of the analysis revealed that the strongest influence on the dynamics of the cities comes from two main components - structural features of the economy (mining) (Eigenvalue 6.2) and placement of manpower (3.2). A smaller contribution to the cities' dynamics is attributable to the components of population dynamics (Eigenvalue 1.8), and where the city comes in the system of the cities' hierarchy (1.1), as well as the situation of the «trap» (the intrinsic value of 0.9). The study showed a small contribution of agglomeration effects in the dynamics of Russian cities (Eigenvalue 0.8): agglomeration effects are manifested only in the cities (especially in Moscow), and most large cities of Central and Southern Russia.
On the basis of the regression analysis we made models for migration and wages for Russia in General and for two regions - the European and Eastern parts of the country (section 4). The results of the migration model showed that migrants go to cities with better infrastructure, a more active business environment and favorable climatic conditions. The sample division to the «Western» and «Eastern» part showed the same for both groups of cities a positive impact on migration increases the level of average salary and the number of active firms, especially for the cities of Siberia and the Far East. Analysis helped us to identify the impact on migration in cities of the macroregions of such factors as distance to Moscow, the population, the regional transport infrastructure, climatic conditions.
The model of wages has revealed the importance of regional variables: population density, density of railways and the percentage of employed people with higher education. The distance to Moscow, geographical coordinates and climatic characteristics turned out to be insignificant factors. The model showed the importance of constants that indicate the presence of other affecting regressant variables, in addition to those included in the final model. When the cities were divided into those of East and West we didn't find significant changes in the evaluations before the explanatory variables for the model of wages. The results can be considered as preliminary and this work should be continued on an extended database.
Cases were investigated to analyze and assess the impact of a range of institutional factors, including: special economic zones (cases SEZ «Alabuga», SEZ «Ulyanovsk», SEZ «Kaliningrad»); urban strategic planning (Saint-Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Samara); large scale events and the projects, (Vladivostok, Saint-Petersburg, Yaroslavl, Velikiy Novgorod); conflicts between city and municipal authorities (Pskov). For all the discussed factors we could not establish an unambiguous direction of their influence on the growth of cities. The study can be extended using other methods, for example, expert surveys.
A comparative analysis of the development of cities in Russia and Germany allowed us to highlight both common and specific features. Cities in East Germany are characterized by trends of shrinking and economic downturn, which can be overcome with the help of strategies to adapt housing and infrastructure, to reorganization public spaces, create new jobs and others, as well as stimulating economic growth by developing agglomerations and the links between them. Problems in Russian cities are connected with the system of settlements and the level of their economic and social development, which affects quality of life for the population. Based on our empirical analysis we indentified five groups of Russian cities, characterized by similar trends and dynamics of development. Only one of these groups shows simultaneous growth in living standards and population. The resulting typology of cities with populations over 100,000 may serve as a basis for more in-depth analysis of the links between demographic, social and economic processes in the Russian cities with different types of dynamics in the post-Soviet period.