Realization of Reproductive Intentions: Causes and Consequences of Timing Changes
On May 20, a preliminary discussion of the PhD dissertation by Olga Rodina, a PhD-student and research intern at the International Laboratory for Population and Health, took place. Her dissertation is titled “Realization of Reproductive Intentions: Causes and Consequences of Timing Changes.”
Research Focus
During the seminar, it was announced that the dissertation research aims to address three interrelated objectives: analyzing changes in the age profile of fertility in Russia using both cohort and period measures; identifying factors associated with the reproductive intentions; and assessing the impact of the age at first birth on women’s socioeconomic status, specifically on their wage levels.
Key Findings
The seminar also presented the results of an analysis of factors influencing short-term reproductive intentions among Russian women, based on data from the national survey “Parents and Children, Men and Women” (2025). The findings show that having reproductive intentions is positively associated with having a partner, childlessness, life satisfaction, traditional attitudes toward parenthood and gender roles, as well as certain characteristics of material well-being, including the presence of credit obligations. At the same time, differences across age and demographic groups were identified, which helps clarify the mechanisms shaping reproductive intentions at different stages of the life course.
The presentation discussed the relationship between the age at first birth and the magnitude of the “motherhood penalty” in wages, based on panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for the years 2006–2022. Estimates indicate that the birth of a first child is associated with an average wage reduction of 13.8% for women. The largest wage gap is observed among those who gave birth between the ages of 25 and 30 (17%); for those giving birth before 25, the gap is 7%; and for those after 30, it is 11.7%.
Discussion
The reviewers were Sergey Zakharov, Chief Research Fellow at the Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, and Elena Vakulenko, Professor at the Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University. The reviewers provided comments on the structure, content, and formatting of the dissertation, and discussed the need to clearly articulate the scientific novelty and contribution for each of the three parts of the work. Other leading experts also actively participated in the discussion, including Dmitry Zhdanov, Vladimir Shkolnikov, and Lilia Karachurina. Based on the outcome of the discussion, Olga was tasked with revising the dissertation over the next three months.
