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The experience of post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy

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This report studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Russian economy and the prospects for its recovery. Three aspects are of particular interest to the Indian audience, the transition from the rapid growth of the 2000s to more moderate growth, the special role of the service sector, and the expanding share of the informal economy.
Seminar organizer: State Bank Institute of Leadership in Kolkata

 

This paper considers possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the 2020 crisis, based on the experience of previous crises, the use of sectoral accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data. By analogy with the post-2008 recovery, it is likely to be associated with an increase in global demand for raw materials and the response of the oil and gas complex. The stagnation after 2008 was due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in oil and gas and the end of technological catch-up. Measures to stimulate growth should include finding ways to improve the efficiency of the oil and gas complex, stimulating the adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving adaptation channels during the crisis - for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains. Three aspects are of particular interest to the Indian audience, the transition from the rapid growth of the 2000s to more moderate growth, the special role of the service sector, and the expanding share of the informal economy.

 

Speaker: Ilya Voskoboynikov

For participation in the event, please contact Natalia Mironova (nmironova@hse.ru).