‘I Dream of Simple Things’

Anastasia Gergenreter specialises in applied statistics and econometrics. In this interview for the Young Scientists of HSE University project, she talked about why she studies addictive substance use, two very different Fishers, and the cherry blossom season at the Main Botanical Garden in Moscow.

How I Started in Science

It happened spontaneously in my fourth year, when I was thinking about my future career and trying out different job interviews. My academic supervisors, under whom I was writing my bachelor’s thesis at the time, suggested that I try teaching after completing my undergraduate degree.

I thought, ‘Why not?’ I did not have a job at the time, I was planning to apply for a master’s programme, and teaching was fairly easy to combine with my studies.

We start doing research while we are still students, when we write term papers and bachelor’s theses. But once you become fully immersed in an academic environment as a university employee, formal responsibilities also emerge—you have to regularly write and publish research papers. At the same time, when you work in a department or laboratory, you continue to conduct research on topics that genuinely interest you. And, as a rule, teaching is also connected with the subjects you work on in your research.

So I would say that I first found myself in an academic and teaching environment, and it was through this experience that I realised I was genuinely interested in research.

The Focus of My Research

In broad terms, I work with mathematical methods in economics. More specifically, my specialisation is applied statistics and econometrics. I develop methods for estimating quantitative relationships in data.

As for applied research, most of my papers focus on the use of addictive substances—that is, substances that can cause dependence. First and foremost, I study the classic forms of addiction: alcohol, nicotine, and drugs. But there are other forms as well, such as gambling addiction, which can be associated with gambling or computer games, and even food addiction.

My academic supervisors introduced me to this topic in my third year, when I was writing a term paper under their supervision. They already had another student working on a different problem, but also in the context of studying addictive substances. They suggested that I join the project, set up a small research group, and explore related areas by using an existing database to address other research questions.

Why Study Consumption as an Economist?

I focused on the relationship between individuals’ socioeconomic status and the development of addictive disorders. I also looked at the links between psychological stress, decisions about whether to consume addictive substances, and the intensity of consumption.

Medical research confirms that neurochemical processes in the brain are closely linked to the development of addiction.

Economists, meanwhile, are interested in questions of economic and social policy. Can we influence this situation? To answer this question, we need to identify the factors that affect consumption and determine which social groups are most vulnerable. This is necessary to develop more effective measures aimed at improving public health and well-being.

The Database I Used

When I started working on this topic, I used US data. This was because American databases contain information about substances for which it is virtually impossible to collect comparable data in Russia from open sources.

I am referring primarily to drugs. In some US states, for example, marijuana is legal, so people may be more willing to answer questions about whether they use it and for what purpose—medical or recreational.

In Russia, collecting such data is much more difficult because these substances are prohibited. For respondents, answering such questions carries a risk to the respondents themselves.

Risk Factors

When it comes to stress, it does significantly increase both the likelihood of consuming addictive substances and the intensity of consumption. Interestingly, this relationship is more pronounced among women. In other words, women appear to be more vulnerable to changes in their emotional and psychological state and to stressful life events. In response to stress, they are more likely than men to engage in addictive behaviour.

At the same time, men consume addictive substances more frequently on average—both alcohol and tobacco products. However, their response to stress is not as pronounced. For men, income level is a more significant factor. The higher a man’s income, the lower the likelihood that he will use drugs or tobacco, but the higher the likelihood that he will consume alcohol.

One possible explanation is that alcohol is more socially acceptable, so its consumption is not associated with the same level of stigma as drug use. Higher income allows people to buy higher-quality alcohol and possibly consume it more frequently. Marijuana and tobacco products, by contrast, are often associated with lower socioeconomic status.

However, it is also important to take the influence of the social environment into account. A high income means not only greater financial resources, but also a particular social circle, lifestyle, and social environment. These are among the most difficult factors to analyse because they cannot always be measured directly using survey data.

Our Research Methods

The methods we develop are specifically designed to account for possible unobserved factors—factors that we cannot directly measure or record, but which may affect both consumption and other indicators of interest. Our task is to adjust the estimates so as to separate as effectively as possible the effects of these hidden factors from the effects of the variables we are studying, such as income or stress.

Very often, this involves the social environment, which cannot be fully described using survey data. For example, it may include peer influence that encourages a person to drink, or having friends who consume alcohol, smoke cigarettes, or use other psychoactive substances. It may also involve the family environment—for example, whether a person’s parents drank alcohol or smoked, and how frequently they did so.

What I Am Proud of

When it comes to research, I am still a young researcher at the beginning of my career path. But I am proud that I have already written and published three research papers. One of them was recently accepted by the American Journal of Health Behavior, an international US-based journal in the A category. The paper focused on the effects of stress on the consumption of different substances.

What I Dream About

Simple things. I dream of building a strong, loving family and fulfilling my potential as a professional. I want to be a great person and be proud of myself.

If I Had Not Become a Scholar

As a child, I dreamed of doing many different things. For example, I was very interested in linguistics. I love learning foreign languages, so at one point I even wanted to become a translator. But then I changed my mind and became interested in economics. I have always been attracted, on the one hand, to the social sciences—social studies and history—and, on the other, to mathematics and computer science. Economics turned out to be one of the fields where these seemingly different areas could be combined. And that is what eventually happened: I now work in economics, but specifically with mathematical methods in economics. At school, I studied English and German, and at university I also started learning Chinese. I am still studying it, although with varying degrees of success, as I do not always have enough time. At one point, I also started learning Spanish, but for now I have had to put it on hold.

Who I Would Like to Meet

It would probably be one of the leading statisticians or econometricians. Perhaps James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel Prize winner in Economics. He continues to work at the University of Chicago. The Heckman model, which was developed in the last century to account for non-random selection, is widely known in econometrics. It is still actively used to address a wide range of problems, including some of those I work on.

Another important figure is Victor Chernozhukov. He is a Russian economist and econometrician who developed the double machine learning method by combining approaches from machine learning and econometrics. He is often described as one of the most likely future Nobel laureates in Economics, and I sincerely hope that he will receive the prize.

My Ordinary Day

If it is a working day, everything starts with breakfast and a cup of coffee. Then I go to the university to teach classes or simply work. I really like the atmosphere both in my office and at the university in general. Working from home is not as interesting: there are always lots of things there to distract you.

When you come to the university, it is much easier to concentrate on work. For example, you can sit down and write a research paper without being distracted. Besides, there is always someone here to discuss something with, ask for advice, or find new ideas for your research.

If it is a day off, I try to spend time with friends, family, and loved ones. But quite often I simply stay at home to recover from the busy pace of university life.

Do I Experience Burnout?

From time to time, I get the feeling that too many tasks are piling up at once. There is teaching—my main job—as well as projects at the laboratory and lots of minor issues that need to be dealt with immediately. You start to feel that you are spreading yourself too thin and no longer have enough energy to do every task properly. At such moments, you want to spend at least one day doing nothing and thinking about nothing—just switch off your phone and stop answering work emails.

What I Teach

Probability theory, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and machine learning. If I had to say which subjects I feel most comfortable teaching, it would definitely be statistics and econometrics. These disciplines are closest to my research. They were also what led me into teaching in the first place. Both of my academic supervisors specialise in statistics and econometrics and teach these courses themselves. They were also my favourite subjects as a student, so it is only natural that I now teach them as well.

How Much Econometrics and Statistics Are in Our Everyday Lives?

A lot. We encounter them much more often than we realise. For example, my mother is a doctor and holds a PhD in medicine. Her PhD thesis focused on studying factors that can help detect breast cancer at an early stage and predict how the disease will progress.

In her work, she analysed the results of patients’ medical examinations, studied various biomarkers in their blood, and used this data to estimate the probability of further disease progression. She is not a statistician herself, so I helped her a little with the statistical part of the research.

My Hobbies

I love reading, especially fiction. It is very sad that I have less and less time for it because of work. I would like to bring reading back into my life because it broadens your horizons, often in ways that we do not immediately notice. Reading develops empathy, teaches you to look at the world more broadly, see different points of view, and not limit yourself to the narrow tasks we encounter in everyday life.

At one point, Norwegian Wood by Haruki Murakami deeply impressed me. It is not the easiest book to read because it explores themes of death, as well as various problems and emotional experiences. But what appeals to me is the psychological depth with which the author explores his characters. They really come across as living, authentic people, and it is fascinating to follow their stories.

The last TV series I watched was the crime drama Fisher. My students recommended it to me: there is a researcher with this surname in statistics, and in probability theory there is the Fisher distribution, named after him. We discussed it in a seminar. I told my students about it, and they immediately responded: ‘There is a TV series with that title—it is about a serial killer nicknamed Fisher. You should watch it.’

Advice for Early-Career Researchers

Do not be afraid. And, when necessary, ask older or more experienced colleagues for advice and help.

The word ‘scientist’ can sometimes sound rather grand and intimidating. However, getting started in research is not as difficult as it may seem.

On the one hand, you do need a certain level of knowledge and skills to conduct research and write academic papers. But on the other hand, once you are part of an academic and university environment, you have opportunities to interact with lecturers and active researchers.

Students also already have term papers and bachelor’s theses which, with further development, can quite easily be turned into research papers. You can present your findings to the academic community, give a conference presentation, and take your first steps in research.

My Favourite Place in Moscow

I really love Moscow’s parks. My favourite is probably the Main Botanical Garden of the Russian Academy of Sciences. I live nearby and often go there for walks. It is a genuine green oasis in the middle of Moscow. If you go deeper into the garden, you get the feeling that you are no longer in the city but somewhere in a forest. There are places where it feels as though civilisation is very far away. At the same time, the park is quite well maintained and has good facilities.

There is also a small Japanese garden there. Every spring, the cherry trees blossom, and there are always lots of people who come to see them. I went there myself this spring.