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Обычная версия сайта
14
Апрель

Project Analysis in Energy Sector

2021/2022
Учебный год
ENG
Обучение ведется на английском языке
4
Кредиты
Статус:
Курс по выбору
Когда читается:
2-й курс, 1, 2 модуль

Преподаватель

Course Syllabus

Abstract

The course is aimed at analysing modern methods of the valuation of investment projects in the fuel and energy complex - from the basic method of discounted cash flows in a deterministic formulation to a complex probabilistic models, that take into account the price of risk and real options. Due to the applied nature of the discipline, special attention is paid to the formation of students' skills of independent calculations on a computer, simulating the key procedures and methods used in the licensed applied industry software systems, that are used in the oil and gas industry. In addition to applied calculations, within the course, considerable attention is paid to the analysis of the microeconomic features of the markets for raw materials and energy resources, as well as to the influence of these features on the formation of valuation methods used in the energy industries. Thanks to this, students develop the ability to draw independent conclusions about the limits of applicability of a particular valuation method in each specific applied situation.
Learning Objectives

Learning Objectives

  • Understanding the basics of modern methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of long-term projects in the field of energy sector; familiarization of undergraduates with the established practice of applying these methods in Russia and in the world.
  • Understanding the theoretical foundations of modern project analysis in the energy and raw materials sector of the economy, the place and role of economic theory in decision-making in the process of implementing projects, modern scientific approaches to the problems of functioning and development of energy and raw materials markets
  • Developing basic skills of computer calculation of indicators of investment attractiveness of typical long-term energy projects
  • Understanding the views of modern economic theory on the place and role of state tax and regulatory bodies in the implementation of investment projects
  • Developing a general understanding of the trends in the development of state regulation and taxation of the energy and raw materials sector of the economy in Russia and the world; formation of skills for practical valuation of the impact of changes in tax legislation and government regulation on the investment attractiveness of projects.
Expected Learning Outcomes

Expected Learning Outcomes

  • Analyzes the value assessment (simplified for academic purposes) of projects proposed by the teacher, taking into account the differentiation of cash flows according to the degree of risk.
  • Applies basic application programming skills in MS_EXCEL medium, allowing themselves to independently compile and apply a numerical probabilistic calculation algorithm corresponding to a specific business situation
  • Applies basic knowledge about the beta coefficient and the risk amendment when discounting cash flows, be able to competently substantiate the use of one or another "beta" in a particular situation of the cost estimate of the investment project
  • Applies practical skills on the construction of "binomial grids", describing the stochastic price dynamics of various types - Brownian movement, geometric Brownian movement, return to the average, Brownian movement with a return trend towards the average value, geometric Brownian movement with a return trend towing to a long-term trend
  • applies practical skills on the use of "binomial grids" with the cost estimate of long-term investment projects, taking into account the differentiation of cash flows according to the degree of risk and the availability of "real options".
  • Applies the basic skills to apply the discounted cash flow method (DCF) in the case when the source data has a probabilistic nature.
  • Calculates the equilibrium values ​​of the market price of risk and beta coefficients in the framework of the simplified version of the model of general equilibrium in the financial assets market.
  • Calculates the value assessment of the investment project of the Monta Carlo method, taking into account the specified stochastic product dynamics of the product.
  • Determines the general idea of ​​the typical features of the TEK investment projects in the production segment "Intelligence and Mining".
  • determines the relationship between the microeconomic model of the general equilibrium in the "Conditional Requirements" market by Errow and the Financial model Capital Asset Pricing Model, be able to explain what restrictions on investor preferences guarantee the equivalence of these models
  • determines the value assessment of the investment project of the FEK in the production segment "Exploration and production" by Monte Carlo with the probabilistic nature of the initial characteristics of the oil-bearing (fuel) formation
  • determines the value assessment of the investment project of the MONTE-Karlo method at a probabilistic nature of several parameters - price and geological.
  • evaluates the practical skills of the cost estimate of the investment project of subsoil use with differentiated discounting of various cash flows (first of all revenues and costs) using two basic alternative price dynamics models - the model of the geometric Brownian movement and the reproduction model to the average
  • illustrates key indicators of the effectiveness of investment projects of the fuel and energy complex using a computer.
  • illustrates the main methods of financial mathematics - by the method of discounted cash flow (DCF).
  • shows the basic idea of ​​which degree and in what direction a risk amendment when discounting cash flows affects the valuation of typical investment projects of subsoil use
  • shows the skill of competent use of the Gotsolino formula under the cost estimate of investment projects of subsoil use, taking into account geological risk, including such complex cases as the gradual detection of geological information or the presence of additional restrictions on the loss budget
  • understands the possibility and limits of the applicability of the regulatory approach to the parameterization of the degree of risk rejection using the Risk Tolerance criterion for the company when drawing up the company's investment portfolio
Course Contents

Course Contents

  • Basics of taking into account the geological and price disadvantage in the analysis of the investment attractiveness of the TEK projects in the "Rzonka and mining" segment
  • Theoretical foundations of project analysis and its application to the projects of the fuel and energy complex.
  • Cost assessment of subsoil use projects and sections of subsoil, taking into account geological risk
  • The equilibrium risk price in the financial assets market: theoretical foundations of the choice of discount rates under the cost assessment of investment projects
  • Valuation of investment projects of subsoil use with amendment to the market price of risk in discounting cash flows
  • Valuation of subsoil use projects, taking into account the stochastic dynamics of price indicators and possible flexibility in consistent decision-making
Assessment Elements

Assessment Elements

  • non-blocking Performing small tasks within the framework of seminars
  • non-blocking Homework based on each lesson
  • Partially blocks (final) grade/grade calculation Final testing - written exam
  • non-blocking Examination on the topics of the first half of the course
    Requires really valid reason.
Interim Assessment

Interim Assessment

  • 2021/2022 2nd module
    0.35 * Examination on the topics of the first half of the course + 0.4 * Final testing - written exam + 0.15 * Homework based on each lesson + 0.1 * Performing small tasks within the framework of seminars
Bibliography

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

  • Adelman, M. A., & Watkins, G. C. (2008). Reserve Prices and Mineral Resource Theory. Energy Journal, 29, 1–16.

Recommended Additional Bibliography

  • Экономическая оценка инвестиционных проектов : учебник для вузов, Сироткин, С. А., 2011