- Provide the student with sufficient knowledge to understand difference between the classical financial theory and behavioural finance
- Know bounded rationality concept
- Know main assumptions and ideas of prospect theory
- Know theoretical and empirical foundations and challenges to the efficient market hypothesis
- Know key behavioral biases of individual and professional investors
- Know key anomalies in the markets proving the behavioral biases
- Know key behavioral biases of top managers
- Be able to compare expected utility theory with the prospect theory
- Be able to explain and demonstrate using empirical data the challenges to the efficient market hypothesis
- Be able to explain the nature and forecast the consequences of key behavioral biases of investors
- Be able to describe the process of behavioral biases contribution to the asset prices models
- Be able to describe how behavioral biases of managers affect the decision-making process in a corporation
- Class 1. Behavioral finance: introductionPsychology and market people. Investors, portfolio managers, analysts: are they rational? Bounded rationality in real market conditions.Decision-making process and behavioral biases.Simple experiments on anchoring.
- Class2-3. Efficient market hypothesis (by Fama).Theoretical foundations of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). 3 steps of efficient market hypothesis. Rational investors. Irrational investors: number and the correlation of trading strategies. The case with correlated trading strategies: arbitrage & close substitutes. The future of irrational investors. Empirical tests of efficient market hypothesis. Testing quick and correct price reactions to the news. Testing no reaction of asset prices to no news. The value of stale information. 3 forms of EMH. First glance proofs of insider trade. Making money on insiders’ information (Seyhun, 1998). How to test the semi-strong form of EMH? Event-study as one of the key tests of price reaction to news. Price trends and reversals according to semi-strong form of EMH. Testing the absence of significant reaction to non-news (Scholes, 1972). Price reaction to block sales. Substitution effect.
- Class 4. Failing EMH. Evidence of motivating phenomena.Theoretical challenges to the EMH. Empirical challenges to EMH. Insider information and corporate scandals. Return predictability in the stock markets. Seasonal anomalies. January effect. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (Fama and French, 1993). Stock prices overreaction and correction (De Bondt et al., 1985; Stein, 1989). Orange juice and weather by Roll (1984).
- Class 5. Behavioral economics and finance: prospect theory and asset pricing.Prospect theory (Kahneman, Tversky). Bounded rationality. Expected Utility theory vs. prospect theory. Probability weighing function: π(p) instead of p. What does the introduction of the weighing functionmean? The weight of small probabilities. Lotteries as an example of overweighedprobability. The weight of large probabilities. Parametrization of utility function. Risktaking behavior. Endowment effect: experiments. Sentiment and asset pricing.
- Class6-7. Heuristics and behavioral biases of investors.The most popular bias in day-to-day discussion: Anchoring bias.Limited attention, storing and retrieving information, availability bias. Familiarity bias (Health &Tversky, 1991). Risk preference, framing bias. Mental accounting (Tversky&Kahnemann, 1992).Representativeness (Tversky&Kahnemann, 1974).Ambiguity aversion (Ellsberg, 1961). Overconfidence and excessive trading (Griffin &Tversky, 1992). The analysis of potential consequences.
- Class8-9. Behavioral corporate finance.The decision-making process in reality. First level: rational managers. Managerial financing and investment decisions as rational responses to securities market mispricing. Second level: less than rational managers. Behavioral biases of managers. Capital structure choice: behavioral aspects. Investment policy: real investments and M&A deals.
- Class 10.Demonstrating behavioral biases in action: Empirical evidence from emerging markets.Presentation of the research projects of the students [obligatory activity].
- Papers presentationsYou should work individually on papers presentations. The paper presentations are held during the whole course at the beginning of every class. The preliminary topics of the presentations are listed above. Every presentation is based on one paper from a peer-reviewed journal. The schedule of presentations will be discussed in class during the first week of the course. Every student should make 2 presentations during the course.
- Case study or an essayYou should work in teams of 3-4 on the case study
- Final research paperResearch project is an empirical study in which you study one of the concepts of behavioral finance observed in real-life situations/financial markets. Some ideas for research projects are usually proposed by the lecturer during the classes. The research project should include problem/hypothesis statements, literature review and empirical results. To receive the grade you need to send the written report (20-30 pages) to the lecturers and present the results of your research in class. You should prepare the project individually or in pairs. You are free to choose a topic that is of interest for you but you should get an approval of your topic with the professor before you start working over the paper. The topiс should be approved by November, 15. The paper is due to the last class before exam (the date tbd). The paper should be prepared in the format of a paper in the Journal of Behavioral Finance.
- Interim assessment (2 module)0.2 * Case study or an essay + 0.5 * Final research paper + 0.3 * Papers presentations
- FAMA, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance (Wiley-Blackwell), 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
- Eugene F. Fama. (1998). Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.A07A16D6