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Course Syllabus

Master 2022/2023

Foresight Theory and Concepts

Category 'Best Course for Broadening Horizons and Diversity of Knowledge and Skills'
Category 'Best Course for New Knowledge and Skills'
Type: Compulsory course (Science, Technology and Innovation Management and Policy)
Area of studies: Management
Delivered by: Department of Educational Programmes
Where: Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
When: 1 year, 3 module
Mode of studies: offline
Open to: students of one campus
Instructors: Alexander Chulok, Ozcan Saritas, Alexander Sokolov
Master’s programme: Governance of Science, Technology and Innovation
Language: English
ECTS credits: 3
Contact hours: 32

Course Syllabus

Full Syllabus

Abstract

Foresight is the art and science of anticipating and shaping the future. It is the application of systemic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering, and medium to long-term vision building process to informing present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. With growing complexities and uncertainties in our world, Foresight has become a first and key step of innovation.
Learning Objectives

Learning Objectives

  • To introduce the concept of Foresight, its theoretical background as well as the process, and approaches.
  • Quantitative and qualitative methods like horizon scanning, big data analysis, scenario planning, prioritization, Delphi surveys, strategic and technological roadmaps among the others will be introduced through the course.
  • During the course, innovative ways of decision-making and STI policy formulation; STI strategy- and priority-setting; and cooperation and networking with stakeholders will be discussed.
Expected Learning Outcomes

Expected Learning Outcomes

  • Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
  • Ability to use quantitative and qualitative approaches, processes and methods in a practical case study
  • Ability to devote resources to long term management strategies and collaboration with research base for improving management concepts (ILO PC-1)
  • Able to independently make informed organizational and managerial decisions, assess their operational and organizational effectiveness and social significance, ensure their implementation in a complex (including cross-cultural) and dynamic environment.
  • Ability to assess and review company strategy implementation and develop and monitor measures to reach strategic objectives.
Course Contents

Course Contents

  • 1. Introduction to the course
  • 2. Background, rationales, and key concepts for Foresight
  • 3. Initiating Foresight: Objectives and Processes of Foresight
  • 4. Foresight Methodology: Quantitative and Qualitative methods for Foresight
  • 5. Scanning: Gathering Intelligence for emerging trends, technologies and markets
  • 6. Scenarios and Alternative Futures: Planning alternative futures and scenarios
  • 7. Formulating visions and priorities: Priority setting and strategy development
  • 8. Generating outputs and outcomes from Foresight
  • 9. Linking Foresight and Strategic Planning to Policies and Actions
  • 10. Evaluation of the Impact of Foresight
Assessment Elements

Assessment Elements

  • non-blocking Presentation
    An oral presentation of the practical Foresight study performed as a group of students
  • non-blocking Home Assignment
    Performed by each student individually
  • non-blocking Final control
    Written exam (60 minutes multiple choice exam + a short essay)
Interim Assessment

Interim Assessment

  • 2022/2023 3rd module
    0.4 * Final control + 0.3 * Presentation + 0.3 * Home Assignment
Bibliography

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

  • Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
  • Miles, I., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=nlebk&AN=1242395
  • Simerson, B. K. (2011). Strategic Planning: A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution : A Practical Guide to Strategy Formulation and Execution. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=362938
  • Sørgaard Jørgensen, Dingli, S. M., & Borch, K. (2013). Participation and Interaction in Foresight : Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=495658

Recommended Additional Bibliography

  • Daim, T. U., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A. L., & Saritas, O. (2016). Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Switzerland: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=1231713
  • Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
  • Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (Vol. 2nd ed). Chichester, England: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=492786
  • Saritas, O., & Nugroho, Y. (2012). Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (3), 509. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.eee.tefoso.v79y2012i3p509.529