Socioeconomic Factors of Voting in Russia: An Analysis of Regional Elections from 2020 to 2024

The present study aims to investigate the impact of socio-demographic and economic factors on the results of regional elections in the Russian Federation in the period from 2020 to 2024. The primary objective of this study is to ascertain the stable and variable predictors of electoral support for the ruling parties and the opposition in the changing socio-economic environment. The methodological basis of the study combines the sociological approach and the theory of economic voting. The empirical basis comprises official data from Rosstat, EMISS and the Central Election Commission, which facilitated a comprehensive quantitative analysis, incorporating descriptive statistics, multivariate regression and cluster analysis. The results of the study demonstrate the considerable impact of socio-demographic characteristics on the electoral preferences of citizens. The economic indicators demonstrate a restricted and diverse impact, contingent on the institutional context of a specific region. In regions with well-developed administrative resources, negative economic changes do not result in a decline in support for the authorities. Conversely, in more open and economically diversified subjects, these changes can contribute to protest voting. The present study makes a contribution to the development of electoral research in Russia by highlighting the necessity for regionally sensitive analytics and consideration of structural and contextual factors when modelling political behaviour. The findings can be used for theoretical rethinking of voting patterns in authoritarian-hybrid regimes, as well as for practical application in electoral sociology, regional politics and strategic planning of election campaigns.