Year of Graduation
Determinants of the Ruble Exchange Rate
Faculty of Economics
This paper investigates the influence of fundamental macroeconomic factors on the Ruble’s exchange rate changes. The period analyzed of 2009-2013 was chosen to capture new free-floating exchange rate regime of the Central Bank of Russia. The purpose of this work is to find determinants that explain medium-term changes in the Ruble’s exchange rate of that time. Another purpose is to find effective forecasting model according to chosen determinants. In order to achieve this the theory of exchange rates was investigated and influence factors were chosen. The model is based on some concepts of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach, which is used by International Monetary Fund. The result is Ruble’s exchange rate prediction based on a model with determinants proved to be significant.