Year of Graduation
RTS Stock Index as Crude Oil Prices and USD to RUR FX Rate Derivative
The purpose of current paper is to study the dependence of RTS stock index on crude oil prices’ movements and USD to RUR exchange rate volatility. The research was based on wide experience of foreign authors, who applied the completely or particularly similar study to the given variables of other countries. The review of such experience highly contributed to explanation of the premises that given research was based on. Further, it helped to make the important hypothesis of the existence of the reciprocal influence of each factor on another between the stock index and the exchange rate.During the empirical part of the work there were built few types of models. The difference among those was in the way of explanation the exchange rate. During the analysis of numerical results for every model one was considered as completely inappropriate because of its results contradiction to main assumptions of the given research.Finally, the work was added by two-month forecast of the RTS level. The difference between predicted and actual values was explained by influence of the factors that exceed the limits of current research on the stock market during the forecasting period.