Modern methods of forecasting and development of strategies for regional economy

Thesis "Modern methods of forecasting and development of strategies for the development of regions."Considering that forecasting plays an important role for the socio- economic development of any site, so urgent task now - to study and systematization of scientific approaches to forecasting.The aim of this work - to consider and assess the forecasting methods that will be effective in the current situation of the world and Russia. To achieve this goal the following objectives:1. Reveal methodical and methodological approaches to forecasting of socio-economic development;2. Examine the strategic aspects of national development and their impact on regional development;3. Characterize the current state of socio- economic development of the Nizhny Novgorod region at the beginning of 2014;4. Reveal features of the development and implementation of the development strategy of the Nizhny Novgorod region "2020" in the period 2007-2013.The hypothesis of this paper is as follows - the methods that are currently used to develop strategies, do not give the desired effect, as the modern economy has entered a period of turbulence.The goal and objectives of the structure led to the thesis, which consists of an introduction, three chapters, conclusion, list of references and applications.So, we describe the main findings of the study. In the first chapter we have determined that under certain prediction is understood a statement which describes how all will be held in the future, which is based on some experience or knowledge. Currently there are many methods of forecasting, but in practice is used only 15-20. We also looked soft and hard approaches to policy-making. Hard apply when creators can ignore some conditions, while the remaining schematized. And all that does not fall, not taken into account. A soft approaches include consideration of all factors and conditions, so when using this approach to open some horizons in which to move.In the second chapter, we focus on strategic aspects of national development and their impact on regional development. Considering the national development strategy and the strategy of innovative Russia, we can conclude that the effective development of the regions in the transformation of the national economy requires a clear and sound innovation strategy in which to synthesize a situational model of managing the region to cater for the investment, both in high-tech projects, so and human development.In the third chapter we have analyzed the features of the design and the development strategy of the Nizhny Novgorod region "2020" in the period 2007-2013. And the basic steps of the Nizhny Novgorod region in the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods. And on this basis we can conclude that the strategy of the Nizhny Novgorod region is sufficiently productive, and its mechanisms have proven effective during and after the global financial crisis. Therefore, if we continue the implementation of the strategy in the same spirit, in 2020 Nizhny Novgorod region can come to those priorities and expectations, which were spelled out.Summarizing all the above, the following conclusions:1. Existing methods of forecasting strategies based on the policy approach that rigidly determines the structure and content of regional strategies.2. Of the large number of participatory (soft) techniques should highlight such methods as 'future search', 'Open Space Technology', because they allow you to enable a large number of participants to the process of strategy development.3. Should be noted that there are combinatorial methods that take into account the pros and cons of both rigid and soft technologies, when discussing the basic methods of forecasting and set of programs used soft methods and the implementation of stringent approaches are used.4. Experience strategy Nizhny Novgorod region from 2006 to 2013 shows that only the use of modern methods of forecasting allows taking into account the crisis situation, the correct form of indicators for monitoring the strategy, confidently go to the target and to achieve full implementation of the strategy by the target date.5. Combined approaches can solve the problem of internal disintegration and external integration.