Risks modeling of the investment project

<p>Baccalaureate work on a theme &quot;Modeling of risks of the investment project&quot; contains 10 drawings, 10 tables, 5 applications. The volume of work is 89 pages. For writing were used 57 sources. Key words: investment project, methods of analysis and modeling of risks, the sensitivity of the profit, simulation modeling, scenario analysis, logistics.</p><p>Positive dynamic and high growth rates of logistics development in Russia and specifically in St. Petersburg result in increased competition in the logistics market. To attract customers, and later profit companies create investment projects, developing various innovations in this sphere. However, the beginning of realization of any investment project requires first of all his careful analysis, the final and decisive stage of which is the analysis of risks of the project. For these reasons, the analysis of risks of the investment project is of importance today.</p><p>The aim of the undergraduate work is to develop recommendations on the risks modeling of investment project logistics company LLC &quot;VSK logistics on the basis of the analysis and modeling of risks. The object of research is the investment project, developed on pre-investment stage. The subject of research is the study of the influence of risks on the efficiency of the investment project.</p><p>In the literature, it was found that there are many methods of analysis and modeling risks of the investment project, but each of them has certain advantages and disadvantages, as well as certain methods convenient for the analysis of certain risks. The novelty of the work consists in the development, on a practical example, algorithm analysis and modeling of risks in various ways.</p><p>The practical significance is that the main findings and recommendations contained in the work can be used logistic managers in the development and evaluation of investment projects in this sphere.</p><p>This paper consists of three chapters. The first Chapter contains two main theoretical aspects: the concept and nature of risks and uncertainties investment projects, as well as light; methods of analysis and modeling risks of the investment project. The first chapter provides an algorithm for estimating the risks of investment projects specific to logistics activities.</p><p>In the second Chapter we study the specifics of logistics companies, analysis of the logistics market during the last years 2008-2013, and identified risks in logistics.</p><p>In the third Chapter, is a descriptive characteristic of the company &quot;VSK logistic&quot;, which is selfinvestor, and analyze the investment project of the information system &quot;logistics&quot;. Calculated the economic efficiency of the project, excluding risks. The third section contains an analysis of sensitivity of the project, calculated on four factors (The inflation rate, the Amount of investment, the Price of the project realization, sales) and three indicators (Net profit NPV, profitability Index (PI), payback Period, PB). Further, we simulation Monte Carlo on two factors (sales Price, sales Volume) using a computer program Project Expert. Completes third Chapter PERT analysis (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), conducted to evaluate the possible results of the project period, and based on three scenarios: optimistic, most likely, pessimistic. According to the results of the conducted research made certain conclusions, and recommendations on risk assessment of the investment project, as for the analyzed company and other logistics companies with similar conditions.</p>