Year of Graduation
Protest Potential in Russia: Determinants of Likelihood of Participation in Mass Protests
Faculty of Sociology
This study addresses the problem of lack of knowledge about the factors which contribute to the formation of protest potential in Russia. In particular, the authors try to understand what determinants of likelihood of participation in mass protests are. Thus, the purpose of the study is to identify the factors that determine the willingness of Russians to take part in protest actions. There are the objectives of the study:1) To analyze the theories applied to the classification of respondents on the basis of probability to join the protest movements2) To systematize existing theories that explain the formation of protest potential3) To list the factors that determine the willingness to protest which should be checked4) To divide respondents on the basis of their readiness to participate in the protest actions5) To identify the relationship between the factors contributing to the formation of protest potential and levels of readiness to participate in mass protestsThe study is based on data from a panel survey of Russians "Electoral Panel 2011-2012" conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. Realized sample represents the adult population of the Russian Federation by sex, age and type of settlement. The initial volume of sample is 2065 people. The total number of waves is 9, not counting the "zero" wave, which main purpose was to recruit respondents. Data analysis is performed by conducting the number of logistic regressions where the dependent variable was represented by the level of readiness to take part in the protests, and independent variables were determinants of protest activity.As a result, all the independent variables were divided into stable non-stable and episodic by their associations with the declaration of readiness to participate in the protest. The first group includes the socio-demographic characteristics (gender, level of education and religion), the political views of the respondents (satisfaction with the direction of the country's development, estimation of the force of the government, assessment of the likelihood of positive reactions of others to protest), as well as variables reflecting the profession, evaluation of the effectiveness protest focus on the opinions of others during making a political choice, use and trust the media. The second group includes the variables of self-determination of financial and social status, age, belonging to a denomination, etc. Finally, episodic variables are represented by values, as well as trust in government and evaluation of politicians.