Modelling the Results of Trade Enterprise Activity in the Regional Market of Sanitary Products

The research is devoted to develop the methodology for assessing the performance of small commercial enterprises, which could be used as a method for analysis to increase the welfare of such organizations. The relevance of the methods is investigated for modelling and forecasting the daily and monthly results of trade enterprise activity in the regional market of sanitary products. The first section of the work presents the main concepts and objectives of commercial organizations, their legal characteristics and classification in Russia and abroad. The features of the considered enterprise and its characteristics are analyzed, as well as the competitive market in which it operates. A review of the literature presents the practical value of this research, the scientific significance and descriptions of the works of the Russian and foreign scientists, which are used as a theoretical and methodological framework of the study. The second chapter presents the analysis of the effectiveness of the use of the core enterprise’s resources, which include both working and human capital. It describes the basic methods of analysis of availability, efficiency of the usage and turnover of working the capital, as well as the extent of the dependence of revenue from the staff working capacity, which is defined from the construction of the several regression models. The last chapter submits modelling and forecasting the results of trade enterprise activity. The most effective classes of time series models in line with the specifics of the analyzed data are considered. Moreover, the author's method of modelling and forecasting using the weights coefficients is proposed. Conclusion sums up the results of conducted research, which confirm that the use of statistical modelling of results of a trade enterprise activity is one of the most important areas of research, designed to significantly increase the validity of decisions on the allocation of resources of any organization.