Forward-Looking Indicators of Banking Crises

Student: Bityutskiy Sergey

Supervisor: Natalia Vladimirovna Orlova

Educational Programme: Financial Markets and Financial Institutions (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2016

This paper is built on a Binary Tree approach to analysis of banking crises in 180 developed and emerging markets during 1990–2010. The model selects indicators (and their specific values) the breach of which exposes banking system to crisis: FX risk, insufficient financial stability, and macro-level economic disbalances, these are important drivers of banking crises. The findings also focus on the relevance of conditional indicators of crises, as banking system distress are underpinned by a combination of weaknesses or a sequence of (non-monotonic) conditions rather than the deterioration of a specific determinant.

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