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Does the Quantity theory of Money Work in Post-Soviet Russia?

Student: Ksenia Reizova

Supervisor: Ivan V. Rozmainsky

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2016

The quantity theory of money - a theory which has taken different forms during its history, a theory that can be traced to the very point in history when the economy and the money began to make a difference. This theory for centuries haunted the leading economists of the world, but in the center there are economists such as Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes, who founded two basic approaches to the consideration of this theory - the monetarist and Keynesian. The debate between the supporters of these approaches continues to this day. The quantity theory of money postulates the existence of a direct relationship between the money supply and the general level of prices, at constant total income and the velocity of money. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between money supply and price level, taking into account the circulation of money and the gross output speed. The relevance of the work is determined by using the data in the time interval from 1995 to 2015. (quarterly and annual). The study found that the quantity theory of money works for annual data with the length of lags consisting 4 years. For quarterly data the theory does not work.

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