Risk Management of Innovative Projects in Machinery With the use of Real Options

In the context of economic uncertainty, questions of fair evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects for machinery companies in terms of risk situations are of particular importance. In this case the main factor, which takes into account managerial flexibility, in conditions of uncertainty, is the use of real options. The paper analyzes the characteristics of innovative projects in machinery, proposes typological scheme of innovative project risks, conducts the comparative analysis of project risk assessment methods, describes the real option valuation models and makes empirical calculations of real options values. This work has undoubted practical significance to improve the efficiency of innovative activity of machine-building enterprises in the conditions of uncertainty. Using the concept of real options will allow to take into account the positive risks of engineering projects and to take a decision to withdraw or the continuation of the project. Scientific novelty of the work is to develop a modified binomial valuation model of the value of the real option, taking into account the specificity of developing and launching into production of machinery products.