The Influence of Private Capital Outflow on the National Currency

The main theme is capital outflow from Russia. After the beginning of the crisis, the Russian economy fell to its lowest levels. Since the crude oil prices fell to the thirteen year lows, the Russian currency has devalued 3 times. Russian GDP fell to -3% a year and the inflation rose to 10% per year. All the above mentioned depends on capital outflow from Russia. The objective of this paper is to analyze why national methodology doesn't respond international standards. In this research we will compare national methodology with two alternative methodologies. The World Bank methodology and alternative, which used in more than two hundred countries. Also the main object of this paper is to make a forecast on Russian currency for two years, with the help of technical and fundamental analysis. Russian currency depends on crude oil prices and we will make a forecast on oil. Russia is one of the biggest exporter in the world, our country exports 11% of world oil export. Export of oil is the biggest profit from trading, in this case when oil fall to the lowest levels, our currency has devalued 3 times and recession began. When the economy depends from all economic sectors which are included in GDP, the economy wont be harmed so strong from low oil prices. For this propose, will be conduct the statistic analyze. Im going to analyze science articles about capital out flow and post crisis period. The analysis of the Russian and of the foreign articles will show accurate results and explain the Russian dependence from externalities. The anticipated results of this study will be the forecasts and derivation which methodology is better. In the conclusion I will afford some suggestions, which solve some economic problems.