Estimation of the Probability of Default Bonds of Russian Banks

Student: Zakharova Alina

Educational Programme: Financial Markets and Financial Institutions (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2017

In this paper, approaches to the assessment of the probability of default of bank bonds are analyzed. With the help of this analysis, the factors influencing the bank's financial stability, as well as the factors influencing the liquidity of the bonds, are identified. Based on the collected sample of identified indicators, a logit model was constructed that predicts the probability of a bond default. The economic meaning of signs of the influence of all factors on the probability of default was described. Further, the estimated strength of the obtained model was estimated.

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