Hot-hand Fallacy and Efficiency Analysis of NBA Player

Student: Fursov Ivan

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2017

The present paper describes a proposed research that will examine the effect of hot hand on typical basketball player of national basketball association (NBA). Most researches of the past 40 years consider the hot hand effect to be a fallacy. This research aims to proof that the hot hand effect exists among NBA players and its degree depends on strategy of defenders and player’s performance. In this research the hot hand effect is tested on NBA shots statistics of 2014-2015 season by using different techniques of machine learning: clustering, regression and classification analysis. Numerical and visualization methods are applied to econometric models which include information of important parameters that define a successful shot.

Student Theses at HSE must be completed in accordance with the University Rules and regulations specified by each educational programme.

Summaries of all theses must be published and made freely available on the HSE website.

The full text of a thesis can be published in open access on the HSE website only if the authoring student (copyright holder) agrees, or, if the thesis was written by a team of students, if all the co-authors (copyright holders) agree. After a thesis is published on the HSE website, it obtains the status of an online publication.

Student theses are objects of copyright and their use is subject to limitations in accordance with the Russian Federation’s law on intellectual property.

In the event that a thesis is quoted or otherwise used, reference to the author’s name and the source of quotation is required.

Search all student theses