Risk Assessment and Prediction Methods in Airlines

The theme of the final qualifying work is about «Risk Assessment and Prediction Methods in Airlines». The aim of the final qualification work is to study existing risk ssessment methods in the filed of flight safety and then to identify the most structured approaches that can be implemented in the organization's safety management system. Objectives: A study of the theoretical basis of risk management; An analysis of risk assessment methods used in aviation; An analysis of aviation accident statistics of commercial flights; A study of the limitations of the method proposed by the ICAO; An identification of two structured risk assessment methods in aviation by combining the studied methods and existing recommendations of international civil aviation organizations. The methodological basis of the final qualifying work: system analysis, mathematical statistics, risk management, mathematical and simulation modeling. The final qualifying work is executed on thirty-nine pages, consists of a title page, a table of contents, an introduction, a list of abbreviations, three chapters and bibliography. The first chapter of the work is devoted to the study of the theoretical part of risk management and the main methods of risk assessment in the field of flight safety. The second chapter includes an analysis of the statistical data of commercial flights in civil aviation in the Russian Federation and in the United States and to the comparative analysis of the average values of safety performance indicators. The third chapter is devoted to structuring the basic principles of the effective operation of the safety management system and to the identification of the most appropriate risk assessment methods. The main results of the study are the creation of specific methods and theoretical recommendations that will help to increase the effectiveness of risk management in the field of flight safety and implement specific methods depending on the scale of the airline.