Statistical Analysis of Trends in Marriage Rates in Russia

Against the background of the second demographic transition in many countries of the world, especially developed countries, not only the decline in the birth rate occurs but also the change in the marriage model. This is confirmed by the fact that the relative number of marriages is decreasing, with the average age of marriage and the divorce rate increasing, officially unregistered unions, and unions are becoming popular, in which the couple is painted but does not live together, and the number of single parents is also increasing. At first glance, the situation in the marriage market of Russia is quite natural and fits perfectly into the global trend. However, this is only an outward similarity. Russians in the issue of marriage are still rather conservative. Young couples almost immediately after the start of the consensual union register the relationship officially or part. Thus, cohabitation is nothing more than a stage on the road to marriage, a kind of relationship check and rehearsal before marriage. The RLMS HSE database for 2011-2016 is used. Binarity models are being built to evaluate officially registered relationships among cohabiting people in the sex section, and also on the basis of different distributions (logit, probit, gompit) and samples (up-sampling, down-sampling, smote-sampling).