Forecasting Bankruptcy Probability of Russian Construction Companies

The research is devoted to studying of one of the most urgent corporate governance issues — identification of factors affecting the forecasting companies’ failure. The main problem is the lack of attention to the analysis of the probability of companies’ bankruptcy in certain sectors of the Russian economy, which leads to an incorrect forecast solvency and sustainability of companies. In this work, logistic regression was built with the help of data from the financial statements of construction companies, including the main financial indicators of profitability, liquidity and solvency, the company's age and the share of directors in the company's own capital, and indicators were defined by means of which it is possible to predict bankruptcy probability of the Russian construction companies in a year before deterioration in the financial health of company.