Application of Project Management Modern Models in Quantitative Analysis of Risks Assessment in the Face of Uncertainty

Student: Tarasov Aleksei

Supervisor: Yury V. Litvin

Educational Programme: Project Management: Project Analysis, Investments, Implementation Technology (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2018

The goal of the research is develop to the development the quantitative model of risk assessment in the context of insufficient information. The research analyzes the most commonly used methods of quantitative risk assessment, both within the framework of the financial model and in the evaluation of the duration of projects. The technique of methodology for estimating the probabilistic distribution of work execution time for oil and gas and digital industry projects is offered. The technique is based on the statistical bootstrap method and is implemented in the anylogic software environment. The application of the methodology is demonstrated by a concrete numerical example

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