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Assessment of the Impact of External Factors on the Incidence of SARS and Influenza Based on Statistical Data.

Student: Nikita Klimov

Supervisor: Yulia Grishunina

Faculty: HSE Tikhonov Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM HSE)

Educational Programme: Applied Mathematics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2019

The purpose of this work is to create a toolkit that allows to assess the external risks of infection in the model of the epidemic situation. In the course of this work, statistical data collected at polyclinics of Moscow for 2016 were analyzed, and a program written in Python was written that implements the SIR + A model. With the help of this program, the model parameters were estimated, and the average indicators of the number of residents who had SARS and influenza due to external factors in the fall of 2016 (the period from 34 to 47 weeks) in Moscow were found. A comparative analysis of the epidemic situation was carried out on the example of one of the districts of Moscow.

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