Statistical Analysis of Monetary Incomes of the Population in Russia

The study represents a statistical approach to the analysis of monetary incomes of the population in Russia. The nature of the income distribution is the main aspect of the research. At the first stage, a form of a theoretical law was developing which can precisely describe this phenomenon. The model was based on the distributions mixture, the specification of which reflects the main features of the division of society into homogeneous income strata. Inside the each stratum the distribution of cash income is assumed to be close to normal. On the basis of a mixture of lognormal laws, all households were classified by their total monthly income, which made it possible to identify 4 main income strata and create corresponding social portraits for them. In addition, the assessment of the level of income inequality in the form of calculated Lorenz curve made it possible to estimate the Gini index which turned out to be equal to 37,3%. The second part of the analysis was devoted to the modeling of the dynamics of real disposable money incomes of the population in order to build short-term forecasts. For this, econometric models were used, the best of which were ARMA(2;5), ADL(1;3), VAR(2). On the basis of two multifactor models, relationships were established between the growth rates of income and key macroeconomic indicators, such as unemployment, GDP, and export of goods. In accordance with the forecast, a further drop in real disposable income is expected in the short term. This is important, since an understanding of the upcoming dynamics of the indicator will make it possible to assess the risk of exacerbating the problem of poverty in the future and to establish the need for some adjustments in the social policy being pursued.