Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Civil Aviation Development in Russia

Air transport plays an important role in Russia. Providing population mobility and access to remote areas, civil aviation carries out an important socio-economic function, which consists of shaping the territorial integrity. In Russia - a country with eleven time zones - air transport largely determines the degree of citizens mobility. In addition, the level of civil aviation development in the country is inextricably linked with its economic development. In the paper, a regression model is built to identify indicators that affect the development of regional aviation in Russia: population, area of the region of the Russian Federation, the length of highways. With the help of the SARIMA model, which describes the passenger traffic, the demand for air transportation of the largest group of airlines in Russia is predicted. Forecasting of air travel demand is an important task for airlines to make optimal decisions about the number of flights on certain routes, aircraft capacity, the number of pilots, flight attendants, etc. In addition, the Engel-Granger test proved the long-term relationship between passenger traffic and GDP per capita in the Russian Federation.