Statistical Analysis of Changes in Fertility Based on the Theory of Diffusion in Russia

This work is devoted to the analysis of changes in fertility on the basis of the theory of diffusion in Russia. The process of diffusion of fertility is a change in the reproductive behavior of the individual in view of the mechanism of social interaction. Using the methods of spatial econometrics, GWR model and SDM, taking into account the regional fixed effects, it was possible to estimate not only the impact of total fertility rates on each other in neighboring regions, but also how the socio-economic determinants of one region act on the fertility rate of the region in the neighborhood. The key conclusion of this work is the presence of moderately strong spatial influence of fertility levels between regions, which can be stimulated by material tools that increase income in the aggregate, the formation of certain attitudes in society and the development of technological channels of information transmission for their faster dissemination.