Statistical Analysis of Trends and Factors in Marriage Rate in Russia

Currently there are noticeable changes in demographic processes in Russia. They include changes in family and marriage behavior. If before the society approved the official registration of relations, now the absence of registration of marriage is considered as the norm. As a result, cohabitation is becoming increasingly common. There is an increase in the age of marriage. The purpose of the work is to analyze the trends and factors of marriage in Russia. The probit and logit models are used to estimate the likelihood of marriage. The data base of the RLMS HSE is used as an information base. As a result of the study, the following results are obtained. People who have a certain marital experience are more likely to marry than those who have not been married before. The higher the age of the individual the lower the chances of marriage. Salary increases the likelihood of marriage as a whole and the first marriage for men. Satisfaction with the financial situation reduces the likelihood that a man enters into a first marriage and the presence of children, on the contrary, has a positive effect on it. The fact that an individual has bad habits and the confession of Orthodoxy have a positive effect on the likelihood of marriage.