The Evolution of China’s Policies Central Asia in 1990-2019 (on the Example of Kazakhstan)

Annotation The main objective of the study is to identify potential directions for the development of China's policy towards Kazakhstan. Based on the results of the study, we developed various scenarios of the PRC policy in Kazakhstan: optimistic, pessimistic and realistic. The scenarios were developed on the basis of criteria such as public opinion regarding China in Kazakhstan, the political situation in Kazakhstan, relations between China and the USA, relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, relations between China and Russia. In addition, according to the results of the study, options were proposed for the actions of the Russian Federation in the implementation of various scenarios taking into account the national interests of the country. One of the key findings of the study was that Central Asia, which includes Kazakhstan, is a territory of strategic importance for the Russian Federation and China, and in this territory they are competitors. At the same time, this competition is primarily economic in nature. Given the “conjugation” of the EAEU and the SREB, as well as the fact that if there is competition between Russia and China in the economic sphere, it has not yet been in the political and strategic sphere. For the current leadership of Russia, the threat from the West is more important than the threat from China. Therefore, Moscow would like to see China as an ally on a number of issues (first of all, in confronting the monopolar world led by the West and the USA). There are also common ground in the fight against the “color revolutions” and the associated democratic movements, which both Moscow and Beijing perceive as inspired from the West. One of the main conclusions of the study was that it would be advisable for Russia to find common points of contact and cooperation with China and Kazakhstan. Here you can name such international organizations as the SCO and the EAEU, as well as the Belt and Way project, where Russia acts as one of the main participants. In our opinion, Russia could adopt China’s long-standing strategy, according to which it’s not worthwhile to show its real strengths and adhere to emphasized neutrality with a focus on the primary solution to domestic problems. At the moment, Russia will not be able to confront China in geopolitical influence, since it does not have such a volume of resources, in connection with which it is extremely desirable to establish cooperation and seek compromises. Most likely, Kazakhstan will maintain the current level of relations with Russia, and cooperation will be strengthened at a moderate pace. No matter the situation, Russia for Kazakhstan is both historically and culturally closer and more reliable partner than China, and this factor must be used. In the event that for Russia the situation develops in an unfavorable way, for example, the situation in Kazakhstan will be unstable, and China will continue its large-scale expansion into Kazakhstan, taking away its sales markets, diplomatic negotiations and establishing a dialogue with China seem to be the best way out. However, the implementation of such a scenario can be prevented if necessary measures are taken. In particular, Russia can expand its investment in Kazakhstan, offer its experts and consultants in the field of public administration for reforms in Kazakhstan, provide additional guarantees of its non-interference in the internal affairs of Kazakhstan in the event of a decrease in the level of political stability in the country, etc.