The Econometric Model of Diagnosis and Forecasting of the Main Sectors of the Economy in the Nizhny Novgorod Region

The relevance of the theme the final qualification work «The Econometric Model of Diagnosis and Forecasting of the Main Sectors of the Economy in the Nizhny Novgorod Region» will be determined by the growing interest in creating econometric regional models due to the fact that in the regions government policy is implemented in the economic sphere, solved the problem of both regional and national level. The construction of econometric models allows analyzing data on various sectors of the regional economy and predicts their development, identifying certain problems that hinder the effective development of sectors of the region's economy and finding ways to solve them. The purpose is to analyze the development indicators of the regional branch economy based on the constructed economic and mathematical models using vector autoregression method. Be entrusted with the tasks: 1. To study data on sectors of the economy of the Nizhny Novgorod region for 5 years. 2. To select the most effective econometric model for analyzing indicators that characterize the development of the economic sphere of the Nizhny Novgorod region. 3. To build vector autoregressive models of the region's economy and describe the results obtained using the vector autoregressive model. 4. To forecast indicators of economic activities in the Nizhny Novgorod region based on the developed vector autoregressions. The practical significance of the final qualification work is that the models of economic development of a region are one of the most important sources of information for creating a forecast. It is possible to predict with high probability the ways of development of these systems under the influence of various factors and constantly changing operating conditions. The object of research is the economy of the Nizhny Novgorod region (industry, transport, construction and agriculture). The subject of the study is the change in the indicators of economic development of the Nizhny Novgorod region for 5 years (2014-2019). Work structure: In the Introduction, the relevance of the research topic is highlighted, the purpose and objectives of the final qualification work are determined, the practical significance of the work is substantiated, the object and subject of the study is determined, the methodological base of the study is analyzed. The first chapter is devoted to the theoretical foundations of using econometric methods to study socio-economic indicators of regional development. This Chapter substantiates the relevance of using mathematical methods for scientific research of regional development, analyzes the peculiarities of the vector autoregression model as a method of economic and mathematical modeling. An analytical description of the research object is given. In the second chapter, a preliminary analysis of the main sectors of the Nizhny Novgorod economy is carried out and their vector autoregressive models are constructed. Descriptive statistics of the results are presented. Types of random processes are also determined using the advanced Dickey-Fuller test. Moreover, this chapter tests the hypothesis that there is a causal relationship between the variables in question. The third chapter consists of an analysis of impulse response functions. It also examines the dependence of industry indicators on external factors. This Chapter provides a forecast of the development of the economy of the Nizhny Novgorod region based on the developed vector autoregressions, as well as identifies features and problems in the development of these industries.