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Empirical Analysis of Thirlwall Model on the Example of Estonia

Student: Daniil Shitikov

Supervisor: Ivan V. Rozmainsky

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The paper is dedicated to the analysis of Estonian economy’s long run balance-of-payments constrained growth rate. The subject is addressed through the Thirlwall’s model, which implicates that the growth of the economy can be predicted with the ratio of its exports growth rate and income elasticity of demand for imports. Annual Estonian macroeconomic data for 1994-2018 period is used for this purpose. The order of variables’ integration is being checked, then, the search of stationary linear combinations of trade functions’ variables is produced. The estimation of export and import functions of the model is carried through the Johansen procedure of cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM).

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