Impact Of The Welfare Regimes On The Rise Of Populist Anti-Establishment Politics In The Post-Socialist States Of Eastern Europe

Explanations of electoral performance of populist parties pay insufficient attention to the factor of national welfare regime, which is especially relevant in the context of post-socialist states of Eastern Europe, which have experienced the painful transition from the generous socialist ‘Nanny state’ to the frugal market welfare state. Therefore, this thesis attempts to reveal the impact of national welfare regimes, conceptualized in the level of welfare state generosity, on the radical right and valence populist parties’ vote shares in Eastern Europe during 1995-2018 using Bayesian statistical models with Markov chain Monte-Carlo simulation and conventional Tobit and OLS regressions. Results of the cross-sectional inquiry prove the hypothesis on the curvilinear relationship between the averaged country’s welfare state generosity and populist parties’ support, although different from the expected: J-shaped for radical right and inverse J-shaped for valence populists. Panel analysis shows little relevance of the welfare state as a contextual factor and policy issue for radical right populists, confirming the secondary importance of economy-related topics for such parties, but appears important for centrist populists, which capitalize on using egalitarian welfare agenda, particularly during the social expenditure retrenchment.