Changes in Persistence of the Trends of Climatic Time Series

Student: Larionov Nikolay

Supervisor: Sasha Shapoval

Educational Programme: Applied Mathematics and Information Science (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2021

Weather persistence is the term used to describe sequences of several days with matching weather characteristics. Persistent weather patterns can lead to different hazardous events such as droughts, heatwaves, and floods. There are several studies describing changes in weather persistence across northern Europe and connecting them to fluctuations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and arctic warming. This study investigates the data provided by the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute to find out and describe changes in the persistence of sunshine duration and provide a model simulating the relationship between sunshine persistence and the number of sunny days during the year. Analysis of this data shows a global structural break in 1980 which corresponds to changes in the sea surface temperature presented by different studies, while the model shows a decrease in sunshine persistence in the past 20 years.

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