Capital Flow Model in Russia Foreign Activity

In the context of globalization, all countries of the world strive to derive maximum benefit from integration into the international economy, while maintaining internal financial stability and independence; The Russian Federation is no exception. It is necessary to have comprehensive information about the foreign economic activity of the country’s residents in order to be able to make competent decisions in international markets, to estimate the state's economic policy and predict the future economic situation. The sources of such information are the balance of payments and international investment position. In the prior literature, authors have often modeled the current account. There is a big field for new research in the modeling section of the IIP and the financial account of the balance of payments. The aim of this work is to create a model of the international investment position of the Russian Federation, which can be used for building medium-term scenario forecasts and studying the reaction of the main components of the IIP to external factors changes. To reach this aim, the following steps are made: literature review on related topics, search, collection and processing of data, building models and checking their quality using intrasample forecasts, as well as scenario forecasting using optimistic, baseline and pessimistic scenarios.