Identification of Regimes of Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan

Student: Gugin Aleksandr

Educational Programme: Economic Analysis (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2024

This paper analyzes the regimes of interaction between monetary and fiscal policies for Japan in the period from 1994 to 2022. To analyze the features of interaction regimes, a Markov-switching DSGE model is evaluated. The identification of the established modes of interaction for the period under review was carried out. In order to carry out identification in order to take into account the impact of unconventional monetary policy, the shadow rate was calculated. The forecast for the establishment of modes of interaction until 2028 is given. The result of the work indicates a high probability of an increased impact of economic shocks on the Japanese economy while maintaining forecasts for the dynamics of the main macroeconomic variables.

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