Risk Analysis of Investment in E-Learning Projects

Study of e-learning issues is significant for the development of social institutions in Russia, giving the opportunities for education and to a wide range of people. However, in this innovative field business is complicated due to its high uncertainty and the complexity of the forecasting. The lack of accurate information about the project risks makes its further development difficult, as well as the search for an investor. The main aim of this paper is risk analysis of the investments in Russian e-learning projects’ market. The first chapter is dedicated to the research of the features of the Russian e-learning market versus the foreign ones from the viewpoint of risk analysis. It may be described as diversified in the use of information technologies and depending on the market demand for innovation and economic situation. The Russian market is lagging behind in comparison with global figures, but its annual growth rates are rapidly increasing. In the second chapter, current trends of the e-learning market in Russia and factors of projects’ performance were identified, using the econometric methods. A number of regressions were simulated to explain the financial results of the projects and their popularity. In addition to the market modeling, a project risk analysis of “Netology group” company was performed in the third chapter. We used such methods as sensitivity analysis, scenarios and Monte Carlo simulation. In conclusion, the results show that the further application of the same algorithm allows to neutralize the certain risks according to a company’s objectives. Besides, this approach allows to assess the trends of the entire market, foresee possible risks and comprehensively evaluate them for further development of the company's strategy. Thesis consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusion, list of references and 3 applications. The length of the paper is 68 pages. Books, articles and Internet resources were used (31 sources total).