Index Theory: the Indicator of Speculative Bubble Emergence on Russian Realestate Market

In the first chapter of this work, approaches to the recognition and identification of a bubble have been described, their classification based on characteristics such as: object, stylized educational conditions, geography of coverage, and the measurable characteristics of the bubble have been described. In the next part, historical precedents from the famous tulipmania of the XVII century to the events of our days were listed and described using the proposed methodology. The first chapter ends with a description of the methods for predicting bubbles and the macroeconomic consequences to which their collapse results. The second part of the work is devoted to the calculation and correlation of indicators of the emergence of a bubble in the real estate market in St. Petersburg from the supply side and from the supply side. On the demand side: a methodology has been developed for seeking for identical apartments (more than one million observations on lease and sale of secondary real estate in St. Petersburg) for the monthly calculation of the index of deviation of capitalized rent from the market value of the apartment. Seasonality and insignificant signs of excess of actual cost over the fundamental were revealed. On the supply side: the indicators of the dynamics of construction in the Russian Federation are analyzed: the profitability of construction by forms of ownership, the intensity of the use of production capacities and the increase in the input of new residential premises (apartments and houses). The industry is experiencing a decline in business activity. Proposed hypothesis is approved: after a comprehensive analysis, at the moment there may be signs of a bubble in the property market in St. Petersburg. The further direction of work on this topic is monitoring the situation on the market, popularizing and updating the index on the website of the analytical center "Housing Economy".